Having lived and worked for many years across the High Arctic by land, sea and air and hunted by skidoo with Inuit friends from Grise Fiord to Ikaluit, I have no doubt that native observations have merit worth noting in the scheme of all things climate. Should be easy enough to line up with the physics to figure out.
-the old man, out on the land – Ellesmere Island; circa 1975
Rex, for the life of me, I can’t understand how the CBC still lets you wrap up the Knightly News for Peter Mansbridge.
As one maritimer to another, you seem to be able to walk the middle of that leaning road unscathed, compared to the rest of the current-bevy-of-the-politically-leaning-ship-of-handwringing, fear mongering, ‘climate-is a people-problem-that-can-be-cured’ 97% consensus talking heads with hair on fire.
(I just tried to be Rex Murphy-ish there, but in reviewing the adjectives and modifiers, it really falls far short of the cutting edge master.)
Click Here: Rex Murphy in full voice
You get the Not On My Watch Best Comment vote today. Maybe I’ll even go back to catching the last 5 minutes of the CBC Viewcast.
For the Popular Social sphere of the Physics challenged, this article by Anthony Bright-Paul posted on Principia Scientific does a great job of pointing out that in the absolute Earth Scale flux of Thermodynamic relevance, instinctive common sense can, and will prevail over the shrieking of the ‘might-could-maybe in a few hundred years’ fear mongering arm wavers.
Even in the combative, crazy comment section of some controversial Main Stream media spin cycle, one occasionally runs across truly great wit. In this case, the soup du jour was about our PM, Justin (Instagram) Trudeau’s latest push to ram the Canadian Carbon Tax agenda on the Provinces and spin the associated Tax as a constructive offset to the 30 Billion +/- he’s already added and handed off to Country’s National debt in his single outing so far.
A clearly intelligent and humorous individual with a nom de plume (or perhaps real name) – ‘Penny Labrecque’ posted this in the comment section of the article re Justin’s Decree:
“Seeing they’re comparing him to the ‘boyfriend’, I think he’s more like a ‘nightmarish’ one-night stand. He makes a grand entrance into the bar, buys you a drink, throws every line in the book at you until he sweeps you off your feet. Gets you to bring him back to your place, and when you wake up the next morning, you feel used, he’s gone and so is your purse and wallet.”
Too funny Penny. In this world of typically angry Social Media hits, You should become famous for all the right reasons. You get the Old Man’s vote today.
the old man from ‘The Far Side’
As a design Engineer and having personally spent many years flying complex mechanical machines with propellers, transmissions, gears, turbines, all subject to vibration and overall wear and tear has provided an instinctive sense of relevance as applied to design, operations and maintenance of such interesting machines.
It has always struck me that this whole mechanical wind turbine farm idea would likely end up as a very expensive proposition on a life cycle cost basis due to the inherent mechanical and physical complexity, regardless of whether it is approached on a preventative or breakdown maintenance strategy. There are the wind turbine wheels, the articulating blades, complex vibration management, bearings in the gearboxes, the gears in the transmissions, the generator, lubricating systems for the entire low speed and high speed shaft sides (yes, even wind turbines need dirty carbon based oil to operate, as well as ongoing routine oil changes, no different than other rotating machinery), yaw systems, computer control management and on and on. Just to complicate the O&M support effort, all of this has to be carried out while balancing on a high pole on land or rolling sea.
Couple that idea with the relative low density of wind power for the large logistical footprint and the typical low load factor of direct wind based energy over the long haul drags the net economic return even lower.
Because wind farm turbine power cannot be relied on as part of the baseline grid power due to its intermittent and variable nature, it needs to be backed up 100% by solid high inertia predictable generating sources. Thus, the incremental capital costs for wind turbine farms (including grid modifications) must stand on their own merits for the full life cycle renewable cost analysis added to the grid. That is, wind power can’t be considered (subtracted) as capital replacement for taking existing predictable inertial grid capacity offline. (Although you can’t seem to tell the political scientists that to date. Fortunately, real physics, like gravity can’t be legislated).
The Cracks are Beginning to Show
In looking at sample literature online for large scale turbine specifications, industry and the government have the commercial turbine life optimistically estimated at 20 to 25 years. Just recently, the Telegraph has reported on a recent large scale study of 3000 onshore wind turbines that has found the actual lifespan in service is only 12-15 years. Compounding the bad news, the measured load factor drops to just 11% over that shortened span. For the platforms at sea, it drops to 15% in just over 10 years because of the harsher environment.
Quote: Dr John Constable, the director of REF, said: “This study confirms suspicions that decades of generous subsidies to the wind industry have failed to encourage the innovation needed to make the sector competitive.
“Bluntly, wind turbines onshore and offshore still cost too much and wear out far too quickly to offer the developing world a realistic alternative to coal.”
You don’t need to be an accountant to see how the political push to wind farms has weighed economically on every place that has gone to scale in the rush to renewables at all cost. Regardless of how various governments might try to bury the accounting and taxes on executing their master renewable plan (and history says the will), big increases for the cost of Electricity are already ending up at the last mile lapping on the doorstep of the impoverished consumer. As a Canadian, its easy to see the very real economic pain this ‘rush to please’ on things like the Paris accord have inflicted on the citizenery. Consider the current grief caused to our Ontario brethren. You can fool all of the people some of the time, etc.
It’s plain to see that the government there is on the run, but it can’t hide from the growing backlash. I’m pretty sure there will / must be other international governments in similar boats rowing madly away from the dock .
Turbines on the hill
You are here, 400,000 years later:
Source: EPA’s Climate Change Indicators (2014) and Petit et al. (2001). They are based on the Vostok Ice Core from Antarctica.
Over the last 400, 000 years, we’ve only touched this current and relatively short but pleasant (for thin skinned mostly hairless humans) temperature spike five times. This time (for the last approximately 10,000 years) we have barely made it back near the scheduled top temperature. Forget the 0.04% CO2 trace gas that gets accused of driving the climate to the current very ordinary peak. There are obviously much bigger and intense physics and thermodynamics at play looking on the four hundred thousand year scale.
What you are absorbing as the modern version of Climate Change Angst is carefully orchestrated by those who want to surgically frame the climate argument by arbitrarily scaling and smoothing the discussion window to match what these Merchants of Fear want you to believe.
For example, the Canadian public broadcaster CBC in September 2011 put up this alarming journalistic headliner: “Arctic sea ice hits record low!”. The opening paragraph purposely starts like this: “The amount of sea ice covering the Arctic is lower than ever before”. Turns out their “Ever Before” starts in 1972. Either the misdirect was intentional, or the CBC never bothered to apply a journalistic center line before publishing, or no one at the CBC knows or cares anything about real Physics, thermodynamics or appropriate scales to determine a bona fide climate trend, or maybe no one understands math or logic over there. Just saying.
You can find plenty of other examples of this skewed journalistic modus operandi, such as “Meteorological Year Warmest EVER!” , where ’Warmest Ever’ is only for the last 140 years that NASA kept records, when 140 years on the real climate cycle scale as a bona fide statistical trend is not even close; its lost in the data noise. Apparently margin of error or journalistic context has no place in such main stream pronouncements.
One doesn’t even have to understand the nuances of the chart’s gargantuan feedback / feed forward balance of primary forces that drive the ebb and flow of past climate change at scale, nor feel compelled to dissect the intense power of the historical trace climate cycles. The takeaway reality is that there are long (approximately 100,000 year +/-) cycle markers that recur in a periodic manner, just as reliable as summer, fall, winter, spring do for the tiny pinpoint limited lifetime scale of human understanding.
As you can see from the big picture, most of the earth’s timeline temperatures are spent in the frigid shallows and miseries of kilometers of glacial ice on top of current city locations such as Toronto. Why the gods of real climate physics choose to occasionally bless the earth with a brief interlude spike thaw to allow mankind to eat, reproduce and thrive for a while is still up for grabs.
Above all, don’t be hoodwinked into believing that the trace gas CO2 is the tipping point in this glacial story. It’s insignificant to the overall system dynamics at play, and in fact, actually lags somewhat behind the temperature rise and fall and even gets out of phase as you can see above. CO2 is just along for the ride on the same bus – and that’s a good thing; – It’s rise and fall with temperature is essential and critical to balance the mix for all life on this green planet, and incidentally, remains the circle of life mechanism of food and oxygen supply for the needy, dependent human bags of carbon based protein who need to eat, exhale CO2 and sporadically walk the planet during the warm spikes.
Don’t be fooled or become yet another willing parrot for “The Science of Climate is settled”. You are being played. That’s all that’s wanted; i.e., hand over your money and compliance, not your love.
The Price of Certainty
By DANIELE ANASTASION NOV. 1, 2016 (Op-Docs, New York Times)
An aside: I’m putting put this thoughtful piece in the Climate Change Category, as we reflect on the simplistic hard line “The Science is Settled” proclamation, but it could equally fit on the other side of this blog in the Category “What’s it All About..” as it’s universally relevant to our human journey on both counts. You should make enough space away from your daily distractions to watch it to the end.
– the old man
It’s alarming to see how polarized politics have become in the United States. The wider the gulf grows, the more people seem to be certain that the other side is wrong. Certainty can be a dangerous thing.
Two years ago, I met the social psychologist Arie Kruglanski while researching a documentary about extremism. Dr. Kruglanski, a professor at the University of Maryland, studies what motivates people to join terrorist groups like ISIS. My producing partner, Eric Strauss, and I had fascinating conversations with Dr. Kruglanski about the psychology of binary thinking, and decided to make a short film about his work instead.
Dr. Kruglanski is best known for his theory of “cognitive closure,” a term he coined in 1989 to describe how we make decisions. “Closure” is the moment that you make a decision or form a judgment. You literally close your mind to new information.
If you have high “need for closure,” you tend to make decisions quickly and see the world in black and white. If you have a low need for closure, you tolerate ambiguity, but often have difficulty making decisions. All of us fall naturally somewhere on this spectrum.
But during times of fear and anxiety — like, for example, right now — everybody’s need for closure increases. We tend to make judgments more quickly, regardless of the facts. We’re also drawn to leaders who are decisive and paint solutions in simple terms. After the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Dr. Kruglanski and his team of researchers found that as the color-coded terrorism threat system increased, support for President George W. Bush went up accordingly. The more uncertain our world seems, the more we compensate by seeking out certainty.
Dr. Kruglanski has spent his career studying the consequences of this psychology. This film is an effort to impart some of his wisdom as we navigate these uncertain times.
Sunshine on Media Spin and its ugly Twin, the Politics of Fear
A tiny sliver of the Mainstream Media (The Telegraph) are finally looking at Human based Climate Alarm in the context of real facts and real reporting to discover, to their amazement, that the supposed 400ppm CO2 ‘tipping point’ conflictingly coincides with a significant upswing in Arctic Ice. It was always there for the taking, but no one on the Carbon Tax Agenda wants to bias their miserable message.
And the remaining 97% cheerleading media describing CO2 as the devil incarnate (even against this obvious divergence) wonder why the majority of regular folk don’t trust that unholy partnership of Media and Politics.
So it looks like we will soon begin to know those outlets who are ‘ with the facts’ and those who are ‘in bed with the politics’.
And, if you want to keep your own score on who’s likely in bed with guess who, here’s a start: The Guardian (backed up by the BBC) . There are many more, even in our wonderful normally objective Canada.
Let the games begin. We’ll be at the beach. The same beach that has been there, longer than us, still the same frothline. Just the facts.
NOAA / SCRIPPS recently released the latest chart of Real Life Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory this September 2016:
Looking at the above Chart from 1980 to 2014 (Only because the info I have on temperature covers that range for comparison purposes), the slope is pretty constant from start to finish.
In the real world, how does that CO2 data compare with temperatures (and just for fun, the Climate models across the same period)? The Temperature chart below can be seen in context at Science Matters.
I added a few measurements off the Y Axis for the purposes of this discussion.
Just the Facts
Starting from 1980 where the IPCC CMIP-5 Climate Models intersect with actual history, then onward to 2014, the real world observations clearly show that the actual Mid-Tropospheric Temperature (as averaged by both Balloon and Satellite sets) gave a rise of 0.072C overall.
For the same period, the Average of 102 IPCC CMIP-5 Climate Models predicted a rise of 0.47 C, or a rate 6.5 TIMES greater. All that projected model rise (above the last actual @ 0.072C) was supposed to happen from 1995 to 2014. In real life, the Mid-Tropospheric temperature has been tracking sideways since 2004 even though the actual CO2 rise remains at a constant and predictable slope upward.
It’s not rocket science to see that CO2 is not coupled to Temperature as cause and effect. The Government models appear heavily biased to favor that same NOAA CO2 DNA curve, with a similar DNA Climate predicted plot from 1994 onward.
The Questions and Comments
- So what’s wrong with this picture? Where is the ‘thoughtful’ Media reporting in all of this besides in bed, arm waving with the Political Consensus Flavor agreement of the day? Who’s looking at the real facts? Not many, apparently. All sold out.
- Why are our Politicians rushing to judgement to put Climate Warming at the feet of their taxable CO2 breathing Citizens under the guise of guilt?
- Who is doing objective “Science” on this file for Global Government Policy? Has anyone thought to follow the money?Looking at the real world, where’s the physical CO2 Problem? (not to be conveniently confused with normal warming climate cycle changes).
- Based on the 400ppm CO2 as the threshold, the Arctic was supposed to be open water by now, with less than 1 Wadham* of ice cover. It’s actually over 4.1 Wadhams* as of the end of this Sept, and growing fast.
- The beach front where I swim in Hawaii (See the pic below) should have been underwater over 5 years ago according to Al Gore and little David. It’s not, and is pretty much the same every year as it was 50 years ago. Who pops up, apologizes and says “We were Wrong, sorry about that”? Not a chance.
- There’s a snow blizzard warning for the Prairies this week , and Perth Australia is freezing at a new 120 Year low when it shouldn’t be. How does that square with the 400ppm trend and CO2 increases year over year for decades?
- Who will fix the Government Climate Models to reflect reality? (Rhetorical question, really. Just sad.)
* 1 Wadham = 1 Million Sq. Km of Ice.
Fortunately for this little discussion, CO2 has actually cooperated to show the true characteristics of its hand vis-a-vis the 330 to 400ppm steady rising slope over the last 45 years or so to now.
So there is a real life ‘fact’ case to be made that CO2 is not the driver of temperature change at all. Only the Government sponsored Climate Models have mirrored the alarming rise of the CO2 plot as the Panic Driver since 1980.
Based on this quick look at the readily available Government sourced data sets, it sure looks like CO2 is just along for the ride. Yet it appears few in Politics or the Climate Movement are interested in looking anywhere else while the newfound tax opportunity is in play. Easy Money. The Political crowd loves that. Logical Math, not so much.
Not so much loved by the voters tho. Nevermind, with the Internet and Social Media offering a permanent record of decisions with place, time date and names, the ‘future’ Voters will have long digital memories available to unravel the show when they are broke, in the dark, and wondering how it happened.
As we look out on the earth this fall, far from the Climate predictions of an “Ice Free” Arctic, we can see ‘factually’ that both Poles of Mother Earth are freezing back in a hurry. So let’s face facts: It’s really about regular Climate Change as usual…. Billions of years’ worth of complex feedbacks to get here, yet here we are, still sucking up breathable Oxygen thanks to our nearest and dearest friends: CO2, plants and the Oxygen Cycle.
JoNova’s website had this tidbit up and running:
Perth Airport’s coldest September since 1944 smashed the previous mean temp record of 1968 by 0.73C ……..
“This September wasn’t just a bit cold in Perth. It was very cold compared to almost all Septembers ever recorded in Stevensons.”
And so it continues. I did like one pair of comments below the article:
- R: Also, I’m sorry to hear that frost damage is happening. That’s not a good thing for the farmers and I hope it turns out to be minimal.
- B: Since frost is caused by direct surface radiation (IR) to space one would think that CO2 increases would inhibit frost by “Back Radiation” – but no such luck apparently…
No need to comment further. Off to Breakfast on the Boat (see previous post).
The Harmonics of Grid Blackouts
And so it begins. On September 28th 2016, South Australia had a statewide blackout. Synchronous resonances, large AC Grids that have limited tolerances to fast changing step load inputs / falloff will spell disaster to the system re: input sources and sinks as well as the transmission grid itself. Based on what’s happening, it seems apparent that the engineering ‘due diligence’ was not so diligent for whatever reasons; – A question for the local elected political masters to answer in the dark.
An articulate Engineer, Andrew Dodson was interviewed over two years ago by Scott Medwid and Rick Maltese on the subject of grid stability, and the impact of “green energy”. It was a Prophetic advanced warning that foreshadowed the South Australia grid collapse of September 28, 2016.
As an aside, if you look down the comments beneath the YouTube piece, you’ll see the usual array of suspects attempting to discredit him. Lacking the math, physics and understanding resonance implications of the harmonics , the Emotional Alarmists with their feet of clay, (clearly without technical understanding), parrot their negative diatribe anyway. As a Systems and Controls Engineer, suffice to say that the negative comments were made by uninformed trolls beneath the bridge of knowledge. Pretty much like it is today. Social Media 101.
The saving stopgap is that in the end, the physics of all this at scale will unfold badly under the various logic-free plans to win the political apparatus’s apparent objectives. Much like trying to legislate gravity by -2 units so that less people get hurt in wing suit crashes, they press on with their case.
Without thoughtful real world plans that accommodate the physics of the problem, it will be a fools mission heading for the scene of the crash.
Australian harsh Christmas Reality Check: Renewables Can’t Cope – ” it is becoming increasingly obvious that we cannot rely on renewable energy to run our grids..”
Pass the popcorn, please. I’ll be on the boat, off the grid, on the GenSet.
Palm Trees in the Arctic
Who knew (sarc) that the Arctic ice sheet was so melted in 1845 that it allowed the Franklin expedition, on their tiny antiquated three mast wooden ships, to sail up the Northwest Passage. Why-oh-why wasn’t this previous Climate-Warming-Open-Water-Cycle-In-The-Arctic exposed by the Media of Settled Science, one might muse. Perhaps they were quietly hoping that the evidence would never be located. Note that the Government didn’t find the wreck, a group of private citizen taxpayers did.
The government only spun the story after the fact.
Here’s the feel good news on the deal put out by the Government after the fact tho: “Parks Canada says the week it spent looking at the wrong part of the ocean will at least provide useful information for navigation.”
Meanwhile back in Ottawa, the Canadian Government is running full steam ahead on his Carbon Tax Initiative threat, oblivious to / ignoring all the most obvious of ancient historical facts on Climate such as that just demonstrated by the HMS Terror’s coordinates, convinced that in their determination, it’s all “the science is settled”, and it’s never ever been as bad as it is now. Ergo, People are the problem, being composed of essential carbon and off gassing that poisonous CO2 with every living breath, using ancillary energy to survive north of the 49th parallel in a very large country.
Yet it is on this very naïve belief that western country Politicians are prepared to sacrifice their economies and their citizens up to those “Foreign” Governments who understand how it really works. India, for example, is now project to grow out of the gate at 8% (of a really big number) per annum going forward. Look at how fast they are ramping up Coal and Coal Fired Projects to cover the need as we speak. China, no slouch at this stuff, is already busily exporting their Engineering capabilities and Project Management skills on Coal and Coal Fired Plants outside their borders bigtime. And so it goes.
Reference: India on the move
Reference: China on a roll
One More: Coal, Coal and more Coal
Meanwhile, we stagnate, hand wring, inflate and inefficiently spend bags of capital we don’t have on multiple infrastructure green things that get coupled to anti-personnel tax and grant policies that will make matters and living much worse for everyone. Ask anyone from Ontario these days about Wynn’s Big Capital Green power initiatives and how it’s helping their lives. Anyone!
As a young guy growing up in the Maritimes, the mantra of surviving a bar fight went like this:
“Buddy, don’t watch their lips (flapping), watch their feet”. In socially acceptable circles, it translates (for the Millennials) as “It’s not what they say, it’s what they do”.
So here’s my advice. Remember who is doing all this to you as it unfolds, and next time, get off your butt, ignore the flapping lips and Vote with your feet. That’s where the real power resides.
Arctic Ice Worm turns Early (and maybe the Media)
The Bullets as presented in Principia-Scientific by Paul Homewood:
- The ice has been regrowing remarkably rapidly for the last week
- This is 22% greater than in 2012
- We may be seeing one of the fastest September growths on record.
- A link to the Article and Data is here: Arctic Ice Growing Rapidly
- And here : Polar Temperatures Start to Plunge
- And here: Arctic Ice Extent Recovering at Record Pace
- And here: Ice Growing at both Poles
- And here: Even Faster
- And now here: The Main Stream media (Telegraph) begins to wake up
The Extent of the Arctic Is actually up to 4 Wadhams +*, whereas the “Settled Science” folks had it projected to be reduced to 1 Wadham* already.
*(In the true spirit of The Far Side, you’ll have to research the Wadham your own. Suffice to say, some folks have a wonderful sense of humor). Hint Here
Merchants of Fear
The Climate change discussion came my way uninvited, as one of those innocuous branches in the road of life that you happen upon accidentally. For sure, it’s been around for a long time, but not something that bothered me in the context of 4.5 Billion years of things that went bump in the night to get us to the breathable oxygen – CO2 – sunlight photosynthesis Merry-Go-Round for the 7+ billion bags of protein who cycle thru the system at the moment.
What piqued my interest was a social gathering that I attended where there was a cluster of well-meaning folk handwringing that we were heading for a cliff because of Human contribution to the 0.04% CO2 part of the multiple non linear cycles at play; – that their kids were likely doomed and so on. There was a genuine fear in their eyes, they were sincere in every way, and were convinced of the “Science” that they were ascribed towards. It had pretty much taken over their previously happy lives and circumstances. Very sad to watch.
I listened, and over the next few months of thinking and doing some basic calculations on the matter, realized that the foundation of their fear was not firmly based in actual fact. Sure, it was getting warmer, but this was not the first rodeo for the planet’s cycles, nor was it the warmest or the worst. The alarmist conversations and models were coded and biased in such a way that inferred it “could”, “may”, “might”, possibly” be the human contribution as the smoking gun.
Some were 100% convinced that “it would” be the dire future outcome. The vague data, experiments and models they pointed to were simple, suspect and not in agreement with the verifiable past.
Not one of the regular folk in that social worry circle of doom and gloom was knowledgeable around the real physics, thermodynamics, entropy, enthalpy, calculus, derivatives, flux, feedbacks and so on at play. To me, it was akin to them piling on to a populist conclusion of an experiment that if a dog has four broken legs and you tell it to jump, (and it doesn’t), it can’t hear. The climate boondoggle seemed to be a similar phenomenon; – an example of Cause and Effect being misdirected for some nefarious reason. (Note: No Dogs were harmed in the above paragraph.)
So I got to thinking some more. How much of this is crowd sourced Fear feeding forward? And is it really any different than any other world class fear mongering that is carried on the winds of social media by any of the many Merchants of Fear that pop up regularly in the nightly news?
Why do such hollow pronouncements get so much traction, one might ask. In a word: Directed Fear.
Fear is how you get a few to stampede a huge herd, and lever a small input pronouncement bigtime. It’s very cost effective whether in terms of effort, money or accelerated social influence. Fear is never tied to now; it’s always coded into some future postulation wrapped in some defendable statistical probability.
Fear is the single emotion about the future that will make us ‘Do Political Stupid’ on a global scale in the Present. It comes from the Seat of Human Desire for future stability and certainty. Of course, such doesn’t ever exist and never has been anything but a virtual utopian smoke and mirror game backed by Political Promises on every Campaign Trail. Think of the great wars if you need some examples.
And we ‘all’ (is that too sarcastic?) know that Politicians don’t do, don’t care or don’t understand physical Science, Logic, Math or the material universe. If they did, they wouldn’t have to do Politics except for the ego or money addiction part.
Politics of all stripes are well matched to the current media circus and are collectively able to manage the Levers of Fear very well. Fortunately for greasing their Pairing Skids, Media ‘Don’t Do Math’ well either. That way, they can both look directly into the voter’s eyes with the conviction that only the innocence of ignorance can pull off.
But lately, it’s beginning to look like voters across the globe, across many oceans might not be buying what they’re peddling to (maybe, perhaps, might, could or not) save the earth a century from now from “a sure thing” definitely caused by human activity and populations.
Even though they have told us at least a thousand times that the Science is settled, we might not be listening any more.
Politics to Media:.. Didn’t they hear the latest trending cry of “WOLF!!” …? Why aren’t they running?
Me and you and a Dog named Blue, the “Wolf” of Australia.
It’s amusing to watch the tiny minded arrogance at play in the various Climate Change discussions. Well, they’re not really discussions, mostly yelling loud enough to proclaim the fix is settled. As a friend used to say on how to find the Best of the Best Pizza in Foodie Town: “Ten Million Flies can’t be wrong”. And so it goes.
If you try to find real physics, real data, real cause and effect empirically confirmed for the diatribe, you will drive your logical self nuts. Don’t bother.
Stick with what most should be able to agree upon:
- The world we enjoy today is very different from the atmosphere that formed with the Earth billions of years ago. Regardless, the Earth’s early atmosphere somehow transformed and converged into the life giving solution we enjoy today. The original show must have been pretty much a place of active volcanos spewing off gasses like steam water vapor, carbon dioxide and ammonia. The most important feature of the ancient environment (if you were an anaerobic organism) was the absence of free oxygen.
- Early aquatic blue-green algae evolved and began using energy from the Sun to split molecules of H2O and CO2 and recombine them into organic compounds and molecular oxygen in the unique process known as photosynthesis. Some of the created oxygen combined with organic carbon to recreate CO2 molecules. The remaining oxygen accumulated in the atmosphere, touching off a massive ecological disaster with respect to early existing anaerobic organisms. As oxygen in the atmosphere increased, CO2 decreased.
- So the circle of life with its various complex feedback loops, involves a cast of plants and some bacteria to use carbon dioxide to give off oxygen, while the animals (count us in here) use oxygen to give off carbon-dioxide. How absolutely elegant! The atmosphere upon which life depends was created and is sustained by life itself in this self-correcting, self-referencing dance. More CO2 gives rise to more plants, more plants support more animals, and so it goes. There never has been a runaway one way feed forward march to destruction for 4 billion years. In that time span, it’s difficult if not impossible to adopt any position other than we got to here because of a fundamental tendency for overall feedback stabilization of the atmosphere.
- Through many earth shattering disruptions over billions of years along the way to today, the atmosphere has always settled back on its own to stabilize as a workable range / mix of gases and oxygen for animals (including us), plants, and various other life forms to evolve in their relevant window of time. All of this converging stabilizing feedback happens because of complex nonlinear systems that are still well beyond our simple minds and models to fully comprehend. Yet here we are, having humanly existed for a mere Nano Second along the full timescale, thinking we are in charge. We have enough ignorant arrogance to declare straight faced that we do know it all, and we declare with pomp and ceremony that the “science is settled”, now give us your money.
Picking Fly Shit out of Pepper
- If you can manage to leave your Ego at the door, you will everywhere see the absurdity of the Climate Change squabbles in the myriad of tweets and posts that go around. The supporting infill arguments / threads are based on such made up detailed trivia, manufactured on such a narrow scale in time that it is akin to using Schrodinger’s wave function to figure out how long it will take to bake a wedding cake in the new oven. Contextually, it’s the wrong tool and will only attract those who agree with the baseline appropriateness for the sake of either argument, thereby subverting the real discussion to the void of endless possibilities and probabilities. The cat may be dead. Or maybe not. Or maybe both. Whatever reality you choose to collapse by looking.
Summary: The practical time scale of understanding global Climate Mechanics is not analogous to anything like Quantum Mechanics. (sarc)
- The vast unwashed who play the 10 million flies that don’t care to (or can’t) understand the importance of relevant earth climate scale timelines, entropy, enthalpy, thermodynamics, inertia, physics and the like, are programmed only to buzz around the leftover pizza of the day. They can be wrong, even if they are your media of choice. And in this new social reality, the internet won’t forget a single one on the wrong side of history who pushed them there. Give it “time”.
Pass the popcorn, please. No.. not the pepper. It’s full of Fly droppings.
Evaluating the Integrity of Official Climate Records – Tony Heller
The recent post here about the Emperor’s New Clothes was a simple attempt to put the Current Climate Conversation into the modern human social context.
For anyone searching the ragged edges of the Climate Discussion whose motives are to simply understand, it becomes apparent that there is also a darker underbelly of fact manipulation that doesn’t quite square with history, science or reality. A while back I posted this on Politics disguised as science.
The presentation by Tony Heller struck an honest broker chord with me. You really should sit thru the video to the end and draw your own conclusions. He outlines my “The Emperor has no Clothes” Short Rant far more elegantly than I did a few weeks ago. That’s why it’s linked here:
Honest Real Environmentalists with Integrity: The Old Homestead c/w Dad and Mom – Pre Internet, small footprint, great Salmon Fishing on the Restigouche River, Fly Rods only. Ask any New Yorker who went there for the summers who I had the privilege of Guiding for $2.00 per day.
Ocean Circulation Implicated In Past Abrupt Climate Changes
After a lifetime of interesting real world designing of things related to Gases (Ideal and otherwise), Fluids, Energy Transfer, Thermodynamics, Entropy and enthalpy for mechanical work in open / closed systems and the like, I fell into the Climate change discussion uninvited.
I was finding it curiously difficult to understand how the incidental delta CO2 could be considered the primary villain for Climate Warming. Among the numerous and humongous influences that could move the Temperature needle much further (either way) by a mere 0.001% delta shift, it seemed that the bit player C02 had to be a long way down the list.
Working in the world of complex dynamic systems and controls sharpens your first and second order instincts with respect to dynamic system design and behavior, oscillations, damping, phase shifting, feedback, stability and what happens with random runaway feedforward accidents where it all hits a vertical wall. And they all can – at least for finite real world scenarios.
For Climate change (both ways), the 800 pound Gorilla in the room has to be hidden in the size 13 graph footprints feeding forward / back with distinctive spikes. The Graph below has been discussed in this earlier post:
It really doesn’t take a Doctorate with the promise of Tenure and a quota of published papers to see the patterns. To make the case that it’s not CO2 primarily feeding the temperature forward in the rise or fall, you can see that CO2 actually lags temperature, and never sees the Gorilla peak Stomper coming. CO2 is just another victim on the roller coaster ride. Given the Fractal Nature of Climate, it also scales in both directions for longer and shorter cycles – you have your big ice age events, brief warming, mini ice age events on other scales and so on.
I was about to give up on things related to the balanced Climate Rant, when I came across this on Principia Scientific International’s site by The Earth Institute at Columbia University:
This workpiece of scientific cooperation across disciplines looks and feels like real science that could actually fit the mother of eternal Climate Fractals up and down the earthling’s grasp of time lines.
Good work so far, Columbia University. Hope I live long enough to see where it takes you.
Climate Change – The Emperor’s New Clothes
Being half Danish , let me recall for you a short childhood tale by Hans Christian Andersen from 1837 about the weavers who promise the Emperor a new suit of clothes that would be invisible to those who are unfit for their positions, stupid, or incompetent. To those who don’t get the Danish drift, the Exec Summary goes like the old saw:
“You can fool All of the people some of the time, Some of the people all of the time, but Not all of the people all of the time.”
Everyone who walks this planet knows the Climate is ever changing on many levels. The spin to suppress and tag anyone who might not agree on the relevant influence of CO2 as a climate denier won’t prevail over the longer term as Climate Change cuts both ways.
Among the Mega and Minor Climate influences that move the massive Temperature needle (either way) under miniscule changes, it seems that a marginal bit player like C02 has to be a long way down the list.
The question is – Who’s zooming who? How can anyone actually know the average temperature of the active thermodynamic globe at any moment in time? Yet it’s all packaged and clothed as certainty, that the mechanisms are well understood, and it’s about CO2; therefore the Science is settled.
The Weaver’s Tale
One day a couple of swindlers came to the Emperor’s capital city – boasting that they were the finest weavers of cloth imaginable. The kicker was that clothes made of their material possessed a wonderful quality of being invisible to anyone who was unfit for their office or unpardonably stupid.
The Emperor gave larges sum of money to the swindlers out of the Treasury, (in advance), so that they could set to work without any down time. They set up a couple of looms, and pretended to be very hard at work. They then asked for the finest silk and the most precious gold-cloth and worked at the empty looms till late at night. Very Impressive.
By this time, through a massive public service campaign, everybody was talking about the precious Carbon Cloth. As a savvy politician, the Emperor set up a Photo-Op to see it himself, while it was still on the loom. With a number of courtiers in tow, he went to see the clever swindlers, hard at work.
What the hell is this? thought the Emperor in his private inside voice, I don’t see bugger all. Am I stupid? That revelation would indeed be a Breaking Bad type news story if CNN or FOX find out.
The Teachable Moment
The rest, as they say (well, me anyway), is history. The masses get indoctrinated to the trending Emperor’s New CO2 Clothes, and the big celebratory parade is scheduled to take place in Paris.
When the Emperor parades before his subjects in his new clothes, everyone in the streets said, “Oh, Wow.. The Emperor’s new Carbon clothes! They’ll fit the Legislative CO2 Bill perfectly going forward!
The social masses dared not tweet that they didn’t see any suit of clothes until an enlightened child shouts out, “But he isn’t wearing anything at all!” The subsequent hashtag trends quickly. “But he hasn’t got anything on!”… the whole twitter-verse goes gaga and re-tweets the revelation across the entire universe in minutes.
At some point, the Emperor suspects they were possibly right. But then he thought, “The show has got to go on. We need the sunk cost Tax Revenue to cover off the massive Weaver’s debt.” So he walked more determined than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn’t there at all. It never left the station.
A Short Rant
At this point I was going to expand and profoundly compare the fundamental gaps and spin problems with the Climate Change political science chaos/mess, the deterministic and purpose CO2 directed modelling used for the ‘might-could-possibly happen’ prediction game, the Chicken Little fear mongering and hate welling up like Methane from the Tundra, the publically funded supporting money flows and the sketchy and selective data manipulation aimed at effectively cultivating and re-directing the minds of the masses.
But in going back thru the parable to set up the bullets, I don’t think I need to. It occurs to me that the readers who typically come here aren’t at all stupid.
There is no Mega Infrastructure End to End Reset Plan to get us to Zero Carbon over the next decades on any political table, other than to grab the money. Why, you ask? Because if they actually tried to draw it up, it would be full of holes.
Quite simply, The Emperor has no clothes.
In Danish, we sometimes say stuff like this:
- jo mere tingene ændrer sig, jo mere er det samme
“The Science is Settled” – A look back 400 years.
It was February 1616 that it was officially decreed as such. In objective hindsight, let’s take a look and celebrate how well that worked out on this 400th year anniversary.
Basically, the tenants of the 1616 argument centered on the known “settled” science of the day that the earth was fixed, and the rest moved around it.
Then this guy Galileo Galilei showed up at the party and created quite a controversy as a skeptic supporting the opinion that the sun stands still at the center of the world and the earth moves.
The (shall we say) establishment AG’s of the world set off to shut him up for disturbing the popular fixed view, and organized an Inquisition under the urging of Pope Paul V to make sure. Galileo was ordered by law to “… to abandon the opinion that the sun stands still at the center of the world and the earth moves, and henceforth not to hold, teach, or defend it in any way whatever, either orally or in writing.”
The sentence of the Inquisition was delivered on 22 June. It was in three essential parts:
- Galileo was found “vehemently suspect of heresy”, namely of having held the opinions that the Sun lies motionless at the center of the universe, that the Earth is not at its center and moves, and that one may hold and defend an opinion as probable after it has been declared contrary to Holy Scripture. He was required to “abjure, curse and detest” those opinions. (Great Lawyer Speak.. and that 400 years ago to boot!)
- He was sentenced to formal imprisonment at the pleasure of the Inquisition. On the following day this was commuted to house arrest, which he remained under for the rest of his life.
- His offending Dialogue was banned; and in an action not announced at the trial, publication of any of his works was forbidden, including any he might write in the future.
“Finally!”, they must have thought, the matter of skeptics has been put to rest. In modern 21st Century terms we say, “The Science is settled”….
Ah, the arrogance of the tiny human ego knows no bounds. We’ve been on this earth for a Nano Second of its 4.5 Billion year evolution.
As a perfectly elegant feedback system, Earth has managed to self-correct its various mega-disasters to get it to a point where humans can do their walkabouts.
Sadly, in our brief Nano Second, we actually believe we know better, how Earth got to here and what needs fixing. We superficially skip the tops of the waves in oceans that are (for humans) infinitely deep and still make Pollyanna Pronouncements on the whole as if it urgently matters in the grand scheme of things.
The Laws of unintended consequences never enter into the analysis, and we ping pong our disconnected logic from pillar to post, layering more trivial fixes on things that didn’t need fixing from the outset.
So in looking back, how did that last cycle of “The Science is Settled” work out? I like the French wording best:
- plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose
we are the hollow men…. headpiece filled with straw (TS Eliot)
Although I’ve never personally met Patrick Moore, we do share a common humble beginning, being born in tiny villages in Rural Canada.
I also started out in a one room “school” which was actually a converted confectionary store, and quickly developed a keen interest in all things taught in that little room, including science, math, language, logic and how elegantly complex things are seamlessly connected in the flow of life.
From the beginning, my familiar world was the Restigouche River surrounded by forests that provided the ideal environment for developing a finely honed set of skills to directly know nature, fish salmon and hunt to help supplement the food for our extended family’s meagre means while we grew up.
So I confess to having some bias toward Patrick’s eloquence, and although we have never crossed paths, he is a fellow traveler on the journey.
Here is a link to his talk at the Annual GWPF Lecture in London in October 2015.
Me, circa 1952.. What would I tell the little guy about the journey he was about to embark upon… (hint: there are no words that would work)
When Academics under the Umbrella of Politics disguise as Science for Climate.
This link is just so sad. Any future fact based “what were they thinking “ documentary on the politically motivated short selling by small minds with even smaller minds cheering them on will seem so obviously flawed in the downstream big picture of historical hindsight.
Really, grow up children. Peer Review the Calculus and Physics of the issues. Resorting to silly little protein side-agendas in an attempt to clutter and subtract from the real truth simply amplifies the real weakness in your arguments.
Vencore Weather (a provider of information solutions, engineering and analytics for government and commercial customers worldwide) – just posted this article on 28 April:
“Atlantic Ocean showing signs of a significant long-term shift in temperatures from warm-to-cold. “
In addition to solar cycles, temperature cycles in the planet’s oceans play critical roles in our ever changing climate and also on the extent of global sea ice. Oceanic temperature cycles are often quite long-lasting and a warm or cold phase can persist for two or three decades at a time. In general, the Atlantic Ocean experienced a cold phase from the early 1960’s to the mid 1990’s at which time it flipped to a warm phase and that has continued for the most part ever since. The current warm phase; however, is now showing signs of a possible long-term shift back to colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SST) and this could have serious implications on US climate and sea ice areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere.
I found this recent 17th April 2016 ‘Climate news from Germany in English’ article posted on NoTricksZone.com re: the coming La Nina to be worth a review. The relevant discussion points:
• From earlier ENSO models, the La Niña originally was not very evident, but the NOAA has since drastically corrected its projections and the CFSv2 is now anticipating “unusual cold sea surface temperatures in the El Niño region of 3.4,”
• Based on an array of data, Schneefan tells readers to expect a La Niña already early in the second half of this year and that there are signs it may turn into a Super La Nina – one that could persist until part way into 2018.
• The consequence, he writes: “With a delay of 4 to 5 months, global temperatures will retreat over many years and fall below the long-term climate mean.”
Here’s the link to that translated article from German on NoTricksZone by Pierre Gosselin.
In attempting to arrive at an enlightened understanding of Climate Change DNA, I have come to the sad realization that the loudest Climate Pop-Science as embraced is far more political and social in its approach than empirical.
For that reason, this article (link) below resonated with an appropriate chord near middle C that reverberated down that winding rabbit hole to where the Mad Hatters must live.
Dr. Tom Hartsfield holds a PhD in physics from the University of Texas at Austin.
Here is the link to his article:
This well written article by Dr. S. Fred Singer caught my attention, and I thought it worthy of including in the ongoing Climate Discussion Section here on Not on My Watch.
In particular, the section below stands out:
Surviving a coming climate cooling
I am much more concerned by a cooling climate — as predicted by many climate scientists — with its adverse effects on ecology and severe consequences for humanity.
Singer and Avery in “Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years” have described one form of observed cyclical climate change. It was first seen during the past glaciation. Loehle and Singer claim evidence for these cycles to extend into the present.
In particular, historical records identify the recent cycle of a (beneficial) Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the (destructive) Little Ice Age (LIA) with its failed harvests, starvation, disease, and mass deaths. Many solar experts predict another LIA cooling within decades.
Dr. S. Fred Singer is professor emeritus at the University of Virginia and a founding director of the Science & Environmental Policy Project; in 2014, after 25 years, he stepped down as president of SEPP. His specialty is atmospheric and space physics. An expert in remote sensing and satellites, he served as the founding director of the US Weather Satellite Service and, more recently, as vice chair of the US National Advisory Committee on Oceans & Atmosphere. He is an elected Fellow of several scientific societies and a Senior Fellow of the Heartland Institute and the Independent Institute. He co-authored the NY Times best-seller Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years.
I ran across this CO2 ‘Executive’ Summary of Science checklist. It deserves a read as part of your search for the middle ground of reason. Click the link below to get to his article.
Trend calculated precisely for the first time (2012)
An international team including scientists from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU) in 2012 published a reconstruction of the climate in northern Europe over the last 2,000 years based on the information provided by tree-rings.
Professor Dr. Jan Esper’s group at the Institute of Geography at JGU used tree-ring density measurements from sub-fossil pine trees originating from Finnish Lapland to produce a reconstruction reaching back to 138 BC. In so doing, the researchers were able for the first time to precisely demonstrate that the long-term trend over the past two millennia has been towards climatic cooling. The researchers were from Germany, Finland, Scotland, and Switzerland.
Here is a link to their article, and the high-resolution representation of the Temperature trends attached to it.
The Contact listed is Professor Dr. Jan Esper, Institute of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University D 55099 Mainz, Germany.
Since digging into this Climate Change discussion, and attempting to see various sides of the arguments and postulations, the recurring point is that there are a number of divergent datasets and ideas to be vetted and cross checked.
Sometimes it seems that a narrow information vertical is cited in order to demonstrate a particular Climate point hypothesis that may or may not be based on actual collected raw data. Further, data collected may be localized, filtered, dumbed down, narrowed or extrapolated via various computer models until it reinforces or curve fits a particular hypothesis in order to support some predetermined conclusion.
However, there is also some aggregating out there which seems to strike an appropriate balance in the quest for answers. The following article from Global Research represents such an alternative view and analysis of global climate change, which challenges the dominant Global Warming Consensus.
I don’t personally know Global Research or this gentleman, but thought his article was worth a read, with the attached caveat:
Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades– Don Easterbrook
Global Research does not necessarily endorse the proposition of “Global Cooling”, nor does it accept at face value the Consensus on Global Warming. Our purpose is to encourage a more balanced debate on the topic of global climate change.
Don J. Easterbrook is Professor Emeritus of Geology at Western Washington University. Bellingham, WA. He has published extensively on issues pertaining to global climate change.
Little David and Big Al – who’s doing what in North America
On the basis of land area, Canada and the US are pretty much 50-50 size wise, so global comparison on an Earth land mass basis seems like a good place to start. On the world stage, let’s look at who is doing better in terms of minimizing the percentage of Thermal Carbon based power for the same footprint at this juncture in the 21st Century.
As a starting point, using data published by Statistics Canada (2010), DOE/EIA-0035(2015-03), the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Department of Energy, here’s how it rolls up:
The first thing that hits you is that Canada, in spite of having an Earth stewardship footprint that equals the USA, gets along with only 5% as much Electrical Energy production, in spite of the fact that it is on the cold North Face of the 49th Parallel. Having mostly CO2 swallowing wilderness, forest cover, cultivated land, and one tenth the population of the US spread out along the 49th parallel for warmth also helps. Below are the pie charts expressing the above energy production by type as percent for each country.
Big Al’s elephant in the room at home in the USA is the towering CO2 thermal production numbers @ 67% of the Big Total that have been immune to efforts re: emission reduction. For little David Canada, he’s fortunate that between Hydro and Nuclear, 76% of Canada’s total electrical production are already (CO2) emission free. That leaves only 23% as CO2 thermal power emission float to be considered for tailoring. I use CO2 as the common yardstick only because both David and Al seem to agree on that as their major objective. Al has 3 times as much work to do to catch up to David on the CO2 front, footprint wise.
Take Away … (Canada Biased – friends from the US can do their own summary for their turf)
This is a high level look at North America Electrical Power generation in the context of CO2 emissions, and the reality of the Canadian flea on the US Elephant’s back. This article makes no determination on the merits of the CO2 Emission arguments. There is also much more to the story than these high level numbers show. For example, Solar PV above the 49th parallel delivers only low annual energy density and is not really viable as a solution in Canada, so the US has the advantage there. ( Drill down here )
Raw local wind has a similar annual energy density problem unless it gets aggregated by geological considerations (making it very site specific). Places like PEI already take full advantage of their location to make the best use of wind in Canada at virtually 100% wind renewable, helped by their tiny population, footprint and geography. It won’t work like that everywhere.
However, in spite of our northern latitude, parts of Canada are able to make excellent use of aggregated solar through nature’s weather cycles and the Canadian (vertical potential) geography via renewable Hydro Generation. Clearly, Canada has already done well in that department, and the graphs show it, thanks to those past political leaders who had the vision and character to follow through. BC is nearly 90% renewable Hydro, Yukon is 94% ,Quebec does 97% and Manitoba is nearly 100%.
Many smaller locations in the High Arctic and rural Canada have no choice but to use CO2 thermal. Applying a carbon tax to any Canadian citizen without first providing an economically survivable alternative infrastructure would be borderline heartless and not thoughtful governance. It would be very un-Canadian. There is definitely not a one size Federal approach that fits all. Not even close.
In Closing …
Finally, where social politics intersect thoughtful Science, don’t take what anyone says regarding Climate Change (including this) as an axiom without personally cross checking the premises via your own logical and math / fact checking skills. Otherwise, you might unwittingly become a vector amplifying some Gullible Travels mantra, for some nefarious agenda that may not quite be true.