Category Archives: Climate Change Conversation

Life on the Planet

The Belgian Philosopher and Donald Trump

Strange Bedfellows …

A century from now, historians may well look at our current phase of Moral Righteousness related to Climate CO2  akin to the last century Liquor ban  – i.e., Prohibition 2.0,  under the new and improved Global  re-run.

I ran across this incidental interview in my news-feed and thought it could well be a predictive indicator into where all this might be heading.

While the immediate future might look to be conflictingly  bleak to all sides, it seems to me that the USA and the sum of it’s voting parts is still better than its constituent components and as usual, will ultimately take the world in a new pragmatically direction, even if the transition seems messy to those in the middle of it all.

Grab a fresh coffee, sit a spell and try to read this without your subjective armour filter  on:

Outcome of the Paris Accord: a re-founding act of American democracy?

-the old man last century – gone fishing.

The Plan to Weave(r) a Green BC

The Plan to Weaver a Green BC

At first blush, it pulls at your heartstrings and sounds like a thing to vote for and support. CBC, Global, the Huff along with many of my Green and social friends support the concept. Having been privileged to grow up in a very rural environment with a tiny environmental footprint, I get it from living a long time on my walkabout on this spectacular planet. Politically, the media gets that emotional part down well.

What I have noticed though, is the absence of any realistic STEM project analysis on how we get there from here, and how the wins and losses / debits and credits balance out when we do. Either the heart felt emotional supporters don’t know how to critically evaluate such a plan in engineering project terms, or they don’t  care to listen to anyone who can.

So let’s do a high level back-of-the-napkin look at the physical facts for realistically getting to the Greenest Fossil Free BC aspirations under the harsh light of real world pragmatism. Let’s start with the giant sucking sound from the Airport:

Currently, Vancouver’s Airport requires over 1000 loads of supplemental  fuel per month trucked across the border from BP’s Refinery in Washington State. The rest comes from Chevron’s Burnaby Refinery supplied by the Trans Mountain Pipeline. Every additional polar route flight to Asia will require another 800+/- truckloads per year.

Thus, the airport’s (ergo the City’s) growth is unsustainable even under current circumstances.  The default growth plan is to import even more fuel from Washington State by tanker and run a 13 km underground pipeline through the City of Richmond.  You could shut down Trans Mountain Pipeline and Burnaby Refinery, but unless you politically limit the airport’s growth, you are simply playing Fossil Fuel whack-a-mole.

The USA is more than happy to take the jobs and supply the Fossil shortfall necessary to feed the Airport’s colossal fuel appetite from Washington State. It will take a brave (or foolish) coalition to attempt to Green that ball and face the wrath of the interconnected downstream implications by deliberately hamstringing the very international Vancouver image by trimming anything airport. It’s probably a non-starter for Green, so we’ll move on.

• Eliminate internal combustion vehicles in the Lower Mainland in favor of EV’s. As an idea, sounds like it should be enforceable as a political objective.  Based on current stats, let’s look at the increased load demand that would be imposed on the Electrical grid. The total gasoline demand for Vancouver is approximately 185,000 barrels per day. That adds an additional 116,400 MWh per day electrical energy gasoline distillate equivalent to the grid. In terms of the additional average (not peak) generating load, it works out to about 4,850 MW more. (Ignoring peaks)

• Add in Vancouver’s single minded political plan to outlaw Natural Gas in favor of Electricity. The city will tell you that you can still use it “subject to”, but will make the city managed building code so difficult for a contractor to jump thru the regulatory hoops, that it will not really be viable as an option. Right now, Vancouver has a natural gas demand of around 26,000,000 Gj/Yr that will need electrical grid replacing. The Green Plan is to allow a green methane alternative, but that optimistically tops out at around 500,000 Gj/Yr, leaving 25,500,000 Gj/Yr to be replaced by electricity. That works out to an additional Grid energy load of around 19,500 MWh/Day, with an average (not peak covering as in winter) addition power demand of about 809,000 MW to the base load.

So where will that extra energy come from as Green input to the Grid? Well, the latest Political speak by the Green NDP Co-Op seems to be currently biased against Hydro as an option. PV Solar north of the 49th Parallel is of such a low density annual load factor as to be unworkable from a capital or physical geography point of view. Nuclear is out of the question. That leaves wind as the option.

Ignoring the intermittent unreliability of base-load wind vis a vis concurrent demand, what would Green Wind look like, assuming they can find sufficient sites that are suited to such an undertaking?

From the two Green bullets above, the extra reliable base load required to handle the demand for those two items add up to 5,658 GW, so we have:

• The Green Windfarm Nameplate Requirements, (using the accepted annual load factor of 12.5% from existing world sites) will need an installed capacity of 45,200 GW total Wind Turbines.

• Based on known current design density, the Net Windfarm Production acreage required to do that is about 2.8 Million Acres (@ 60 acres/MW). Add the supporting Service and Access acreage of approximately 550,000 Acres across the province to end up with about 3.25 Million Acres distributed somewhere outside Vancouver in Rural BC (which is not that Green-NDP friendly at the moment).

It should also be noted that if the Site C Dam (after the political uncertainty dust has settled) is considered politically “Green”, it has a design output of 5,100 GW. Even that is insufficient to cover off Green legislation for EV’s and Vancouver’s determined elimination of Natural Gas by a shortfall of about 550 GW demand.

Not considered in this discussion; – adding that much intermittent and variable weather wind power to the grid will require some type of potential mega stabilizing base load storage either by very large battery farms or pumped uphill hydro storage (think: looks like Site C) on a very large scale.  Easy to say.

Wind Turbines 101 Primer  *Link

Wind turbines are rated against the wind speed at which its generator will be able to produce its full rated, or nameplate, capacity, which is typically 1.5 MW in today’s models designed for on-shore use.

The rated wind speed is usually around 30 mph.

The turbine has a minimum wind speed at which it will begin producing minimal power, typically around 10 mph. The power output rises in a cubic relation to the wind speed. That is, if the wind speed doubles, the power output is able to increase eight fold. If the average wind speed of a site is 15 mph (half of the rated wind speed), the average power output will be one eighth of the nameplate capacity, or less than 200 KW.

At a wind speed around 60 mph, the turbine locks down.

For a look at the real world life cycle issues for wind farms, see this post on the site.

In Summary

To our next BC Government: Think this Green through objectively, and tread very carefully if you want political longevity and platform support with the fickle cash strapped and over taxed voters.

The comparatively small yet flexible Eco footprint taken up by Rurals won’t notice much change regardless of your Green Energy decisions, but the far more energy intensive dependent Urbanites will suffer where it hurts most: in their pocketbooks amplified by unreliable very expensive brown out energy piled on with supporting regressive taxes to pay for the plan.

While the wind in the willows is free, at this juncture the complicated Rube Goldberg thrashing Wind Energy machinery is a regressively expensive alternative for BC. Regardless of the voter’s Political preferences, the Urbanites need and depend on the Rurals more than ever for any Green Forward looking Plan that matters.

Sadly, the Politics in BC are a huge divide that will take great leadership to bridge. Time to show your stuff.

Australia’s Daily Telegraph shows how quickly it can all go politically sideways for one of the World’s Climate Leaders.  More to follow, for sure.   Link Here .

-the old man, in his preferred environment out on the land,  circa 1975

Today’s amazing moment

I come to the garden alone

As an old soul, knowing full well it’s my bonus round and that I’m lucky enough to still be able to work in our garden while trimming one of the oldest rose bushes, this wonderful essential carbon based example of living things (which we really know very little about outside of our self proclaimed superficial know-it-all arrogance) presented itself.

To be sure, I’ve seen these stick moth pupae before, but was always too absorbed by some trumped up self important life cause to really see that the DNA from which we all have evolved in infinite ways over millions of years branches effortlessly on with or without input from our egotistical hand wringing.

Behold, just one example of the 2017 twig impersonator. It must be good, because our yard is full of a variety of birds that are very diligent hunters looking for just such delicacies.

The garden this year is the best it has been in 30 years, and is in perfect balance with the show – a rich snapshot of the history of all that was, is now and will unfold in the dynamic cauldron of all our backyard carbon based DNA lifeforms in perfect non linear balance for each iterative step as it unfolds with or without our inputs.

Meanwhile, somewhere in big city, a bunch of pasty faced suited logicians, legislators and lawmakers try desperately to contain, direct and infill it all outside the infinite physical reality via some virtual rule based set of petty superficial logic, not realising that they are simply skipping the tops of the waves in an ocean that is ten thousand feet deeper than their made up cause and effect assumptions.

They are out of their depth, hopelessly lost at sea while straining at the oar locks using an assembly of broken compasses. Clearly, they don’t have a real sense of direction. That’s the price they pay for ego certainty, and the sad part is that they can’t even see it.

-the old man

Rex Murphy 101

Rex, for the life of me, I can’t understand how the CBC still lets you wrap up the  Knightly News for Peter Mansbridge.

As one maritimer to another, you seem to be able to walk the middle of that leaning road unscathed, compared to the rest of the current-bevy-of-the-politically-leaning-ship-of-handwringing, fear mongering, ‘climate-is a people-problem-that-can-be-cured’  97% consensus talking heads with hair on fire.

(I just tried to be Rex Murphy-ish there, but in reviewing the adjectives and modifiers, it really  falls far short of the cutting edge master.)

Click Here: Rex Murphy in full voice 

And Here : Rex Murphy clears his throat

And Here: On the Wynn spectacle we specifically agree  

You get the Not On My Watch Best Comment vote today. Maybe I’ll even go back to catching the last 5 minutes of the CBC  Viewcast.


CO2 – A grain of sand in the vast Sea of Climate Boulders

For the Popular Social sphere of the Physics challenged, this article by  Anthony Bright-Paul posted on Principia Scientific does a great job of pointing out that in the absolute Earth Scale flux of Thermodynamic relevance, instinctive common sense can, and will prevail over the shrieking of the ‘might-could-maybe in a few hundred years’ fear mongering arm wavers.

The Climate Aberration





Best Comment – This Just-in

Even in the combative, crazy comment section of  some controversial Main Stream media spin cycle,  one occasionally runs across truly great wit.  In this case, the soup du jour was about our PM, Justin (Instagram) Trudeau’s latest push to ram the Canadian Carbon Tax agenda on the Provinces and spin the  associated Tax as a constructive offset to the 30 Billion +/-  he’s already added and handed off to Country’s National debt in his single outing so far.

A clearly intelligent and humorous individual with a nom de plume (or perhaps real name) –  ‘Penny Labrecque’ posted this in the comment section of the article re Justin’s Decree:

“Seeing they’re comparing him to the ‘boyfriend’, I think he’s more like a ‘nightmarish’ one-night stand. He makes a grand entrance into the bar, buys you a drink, throws every line in the book at you until he sweeps you off your feet. Gets you to bring him back to your place, and when you wake up the next morning, you feel used, he’s gone and so is your purse and wallet.”

Too funny Penny.  In this world of typically angry Social Media hits, You should become famous for all the right reasons. You get  the Old Man’s vote today.

the old man from ‘The Far Side’

Wind Turbines Wear and Tear


As a design Engineer and having personally spent many years flying complex mechanical machines with propellers, transmissions, gears, turbines, all subject to vibration and overall wear and tear has provided an instinctive sense of relevance as applied to design, operations and maintenance of such interesting machines.

It has always struck me that this whole mechanical wind turbine farm idea would likely end up as a very expensive proposition on a life cycle cost basis due to the inherent mechanical and physical complexity, regardless of whether it is approached on a preventative or breakdown maintenance strategy. There are the wind turbine wheels, the articulating blades, complex vibration management, bearings in the gearboxes, the gears in the transmissions, the generator, lubricating systems for the entire low speed and high speed shaft sides (yes, even wind turbines need dirty carbon based oil to operate, as well as ongoing routine oil changes, no different than other rotating machinery), yaw systems, computer control management and on and on.  Just to complicate the O&M support effort, all of this has to be carried out while balancing on a high pole on land or rolling sea.

Couple that idea with the relative low density of wind power for the large logistical footprint and the typical low load factor of direct wind based energy over the long haul drags the net economic return even lower.

Because wind farm turbine power cannot be relied on as part of the baseline grid power due to its intermittent and variable nature, it needs to be backed up 100% by solid high inertia predictable generating sources. Thus, the incremental capital costs for wind turbine farms (including grid modifications) must stand on their own merits for the full life cycle renewable cost analysis added to the grid. That is, wind power can’t be considered (subtracted) as capital replacement for taking existing predictable inertial grid capacity offline. (Although you can’t seem to tell the political scientists that to date. Fortunately, real physics, like gravity can’t be legislated).

The Cracks are Beginning to Show

In looking at sample literature online for large scale turbine specifications, industry and the government have the commercial turbine life optimistically  estimated at 20 to 25 years.  Just recently, the Telegraph has reported on a recent large scale study of 3000 onshore wind turbines that has found the actual lifespan in service is only 12-15 years. Compounding the bad news, the measured load factor drops to just 11% over that shortened span.  For the platforms at sea, it drops to 15% in just over 10 years because of the harsher environment.

See the full Telegraph Article here.

Quote: Dr John Constable, the director of REF, said: “This study confirms suspicions that decades of generous subsidies to the wind industry have failed to encourage the innovation needed to make the sector competitive.

“Bluntly, wind turbines onshore and offshore still cost too much and wear out far too quickly to offer the developing world a realistic alternative to coal.”

In Conclusion

You don’t need to be an accountant to see how the political push to wind farms has weighed economically on every place that has gone to scale in the rush to renewables at all cost. Regardless of how various governments might try to bury the accounting and taxes on executing their master renewable plan (and history says the will), big increases for the cost of Electricity are already ending up at the last mile lapping on the doorstep of the impoverished consumer. As a Canadian, its easy to see the very real economic pain this ‘rush to please’ on things like the Paris accord have inflicted on the citizenery.  Consider the current grief caused to our Ontario brethren. You can fool all of the people some of the time, etc.

It’s plain to see that the government there is on the run, but it can’t hide from the growing backlash.  I’m pretty sure there will / must be other international governments in similar boats rowing madly away from the dock .


mauiturbinesTurbines on the hill

Unprecedented Global Warming. Not Really.

You are here, 400,000 years later:

theearthinthepast2Source: EPA’s Climate Change Indicators (2014) and Petit et al. (2001). They are based on the Vostok Ice Core from Antarctica.

Over the last 400, 000 years, we’ve only touched this current and relatively short but pleasant (for thin skinned mostly hairless humans) temperature spike five times. This time (for the last approximately 10,000 years) we have barely made it back near the scheduled top temperature. Forget the 0.04% CO2 trace gas that gets accused of driving the climate to the current very ordinary peak. There are obviously much bigger and intense physics and thermodynamics at play looking on the four hundred thousand year scale.

What you are absorbing as the modern version of Climate Change Angst is carefully orchestrated by those who want to surgically frame the climate argument by arbitrarily scaling and smoothing  the discussion window to match what these  Merchants of Fear want you to believe.

For example, the Canadian public broadcaster CBC in September 2011 put up this alarming journalistic headliner: “Arctic sea ice hits record low!”.  The opening paragraph purposely starts like this: “The amount of sea ice covering the Arctic is lower than ever before”. Turns out their “Ever Before” starts in 1972. Either the misdirect was intentional, or the CBC never bothered to apply a journalistic center line before publishing, or no one at the CBC knows or cares  anything about real Physics, thermodynamics or appropriate scales to determine a bona fide climate trend, or maybe no one understands math or logic over there.  Just saying.

You can find plenty of other examples of this skewed journalistic modus operandi, such as “Meteorological Year Warmest EVER!” , where ’Warmest Ever’ is only for the last 140 years that NASA kept records, when 140 years on the real climate cycle scale as a bona fide statistical  trend is not even close; its lost in the data noise. Apparently margin of error or journalistic context has no place in such  main stream pronouncements.

One doesn’t even have to understand the nuances of the chart’s gargantuan feedback / feed forward balance of primary forces that drive the ebb and flow of past climate change at scale, nor feel compelled to dissect the intense power of the historical trace climate cycles. The takeaway reality is that there are long (approximately 100,000 year +/-) cycle markers that recur in a periodic manner, just as reliable as summer, fall, winter, spring do for the tiny pinpoint limited lifetime scale of human understanding.

As you can see from the big picture, most of the earth’s timeline temperatures are spent in the frigid shallows and miseries of kilometers of glacial ice on top of current city locations such as Toronto. Why the gods of real climate physics choose to occasionally bless the earth with a brief interlude spike thaw to allow mankind to eat, reproduce and thrive for a while is still up for grabs.

Above all, don’t be hoodwinked into believing that the trace gas CO2 is the tipping point in this glacial story. It’s insignificant to the overall system dynamics at play, and in fact, actually lags somewhat behind the temperature rise and fall and even gets out of phase as you can see above. CO2 is just along for the ride on the same bus – and that’s a good thing; – It’s rise and fall with temperature is essential and critical to balance the mix for all life on this green planet, and incidentally, remains the circle of life mechanism of food and oxygen supply for the needy, dependent  human bags of  carbon based protein who need to eat, exhale CO2 and sporadically walk the planet during the warm spikes.

Don’t be fooled or become yet another willing parrot for “The Science of Climate is settled”.  You are being played. That’s all that’s wanted;  i.e., hand over your money and compliance, not your love.


The Price of Certainty

The Price of Certainty

By DANIELE ANASTASION NOV. 1, 2016  (Op-Docs, New York Times)

An aside: I’m putting put this thoughtful piece  in the Climate Change Category, as we reflect  on  the simplistic hard line “The Science is Settled” proclamation,   but it could equally fit on the other side of this blog in the Category “What’s it All About..” as it’s universally relevant to our human journey on both counts.  You should make enough space away from your daily distractions to watch it to the end.

– the old man


It’s alarming to see how polarized politics have become in the United States. The wider the gulf grows, the more people seem to be certain that the other side is wrong. Certainty can be a dangerous thing.

Two years ago, I met the social psychologist Arie Kruglanski while researching a documentary about extremism. Dr. Kruglanski, a professor at the University of Maryland, studies what motivates people to join terrorist groups like ISIS. My producing partner, Eric Strauss, and I had fascinating conversations with Dr. Kruglanski about the psychology of binary thinking, and decided to make a short film about his work instead.

Link to video here

Dr. Kruglanski is best known for his theory of “cognitive closure,” a term he coined in 1989 to describe how we make decisions. “Closure” is the moment that you make a decision or form a judgment. You literally close your mind to new information.

If you have high “need for closure,” you tend to make decisions quickly and see the world in black and white. If you have a low need for closure, you tolerate ambiguity, but often have difficulty making decisions. All of us fall naturally somewhere on this spectrum.

But during times of fear and anxiety — like, for example, right now — everybody’s need for closure increases. We tend to make judgments more quickly, regardless of the facts. We’re also drawn to leaders who are decisive and paint solutions in simple terms. After the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Dr. Kruglanski and his team of researchers found that as the color-coded terrorism threat system increased, support for President George W. Bush went up accordingly. The more uncertain our world seems, the more we compensate by seeking out certainty.

Dr. Kruglanski has spent his career studying the consequences of this psychology. This film is an effort to impart some of his wisdom as we navigate these uncertain times.

Link to the full Op-Doc here


Sunshine on Media Spin and its ugly Twin

Sunshine on Media Spin and its ugly Twin, the Politics of Fear

A tiny sliver of the Mainstream Media (The Telegraph) are finally looking at Human based Climate Alarm in the context of real facts and real reporting to discover, to their amazement, that the supposed 400ppm CO2 ‘tipping point’ conflictingly coincides with a significant upswing in Arctic Ice. It was always there for the taking, but no one on the Carbon Tax Agenda wants to bias their miserable message.

And the remaining 97% cheerleading media describing CO2 as the devil incarnate (even against this obvious divergence) wonder why the majority of regular folk don’t trust that unholy partnership of Media and Politics.

So it looks like we will soon begin to know those outlets who are ‘ with the facts’ and those who are ‘in bed with the politics’.

The Telegraph reports on Facts

And, if you want to keep your own score on who’s likely in bed with guess who, here’s a start:  The Guardian (backed up by the BBC) . There are many more, even in our wonderful normally objective Canada.

Let the games begin.  We’ll be at the beach. The same beach that has been there, longer than us, still the same frothline.  Just the facts.


CO2@400ppm: Not Guilty. Decoupled from Climate.

NOAA / SCRIPPS recently released the latest chart of Real Life Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory this September 2016:

atmco2maunaloa2016Looking at the above Chart from 1980 to 2014 (Only because the info I have on temperature covers that range for comparison purposes), the slope is pretty constant from start to finish.

In the real world, how does that CO2 data compare with temperatures (and just for fun, the Climate models across the same period)? The Temperature chart below can be seen in context at Science Matters.

brokenclimatemodelI added a few measurements off the Y Axis for the purposes of this discussion.

Just the Facts

Starting from 1980 where the IPCC  CMIP-5 Climate Models  intersect with actual history, then onward to 2014, the real world observations clearly show that the actual Mid-Tropospheric Temperature (as averaged by both Balloon and Satellite sets) gave a rise of 0.072C overall.

For the same period, the Average of 102 IPCC CMIP-5 Climate Models predicted a rise of 0.47 C, or a rate 6.5 TIMES greater. All that projected model rise (above the last actual @ 0.072C) was supposed to happen from 1995 to 2014. In real life, the Mid-Tropospheric temperature has been tracking sideways since 2004 even though the actual CO2 rise remains at a constant and predictable slope upward.

It’s not rocket science to see that CO2 is not coupled to Temperature as cause and effect. The Government models appear heavily biased to favor that same NOAA  CO2 DNA curve, with a similar DNA Climate predicted plot from 1994 onward.

Some additional reading Here

And Here

The Questions and Comments

  • So what’s wrong with this picture? Where is the ‘thoughtful’ Media reporting in all of this besides in bed, arm waving with the Political Consensus Flavor agreement of the day? Who’s looking at the real facts? Not many, apparently. All sold out.
  • Why are our Politicians rushing to judgement to put Climate Warming at the feet of their taxable CO2 breathing Citizens under the guise of guilt?
  • Who is doing objective “Science” on this file for Global Government Policy? Has anyone thought to follow the money?Looking at the real world, where’s the physical CO2 Problem? (not to be conveniently confused with normal warming climate cycle changes).
  • Based on the 400ppm CO2 as the threshold, the Arctic was supposed to be open water by now, with less than 1 Wadham* of ice cover.  It’s actually over 4.1 Wadhams*  as of the end of this Sept, and growing fast.
  • The beach front where I swim in Hawaii (See the pic below) should have been underwater over 5 years ago according to Al Gore and little David. It’s not, and is pretty much the same every year as it was 50 years ago.  Who pops up, apologizes and says “We were Wrong, sorry about that”? Not a chance.
  • There’s a snow blizzard warning  for the Prairies this week , and Perth Australia is freezing at a new 120 Year low when it shouldn’t be. How does that square with the 400ppm trend and CO2 increases year over year for decades?
  • Who will fix the Government Climate Models to reflect reality? (Rhetorical question, really. Just sad.)

* 1 Wadham = 1 Million Sq. Km of Ice.

The Summary

Fortunately for this little discussion, CO2 has actually cooperated to  show the true characteristics of its hand vis-a-vis the 330 to  400ppm steady  rising slope over the last 45 years or so to now.

So there is a real life ‘fact’ case to be made that CO2 is not the driver of temperature change at all. Only the Government sponsored Climate Models have mirrored the alarming rise of the CO2 plot as the Panic Driver since 1980.

Based on this quick look at the readily available Government sourced data sets, it sure looks like CO2 is just along for the ride. Yet it appears few in Politics or the Climate Movement are interested in looking anywhere else while the newfound tax opportunity is in play. Easy Money. The Political crowd loves that. Logical Math, not so much.

Not so much loved by the voters tho. Nevermind, with the Internet and Social Media offering a permanent record of decisions with place, time date and names, the ‘future’ Voters will have long digital memories available to unravel the show when they are broke, in the dark, and wondering how it happened.

As we look out on the earth this fall, far from the Climate predictions of an “Ice Free” Arctic, we can see ‘factually’ that both Poles of Mother Earth are freezing back in a hurry.  So let’s face facts: It’s really about regular Climate Change as usual…. Billions of years’ worth of complex feedbacks to get here, yet here we are, still sucking up breathable Oxygen thanks to our nearest and dearest friends: CO2, plants and the Oxygen Cycle.


And Now, for Something Completely Different:

JoNova’s website had this tidbit up and running:

Coldest Perth September recorded in 120 years of records

Perth Airport’s coldest September since 1944 smashed the previous mean temp record of 1968 by 0.73C ……..

“This September wasn’t just a bit cold in Perth. It was very cold compared to almost all Septembers ever recorded in Stevensons.”

And so it continues.  I did like one pair of comments below the article:

  1. R: Also, I’m sorry to hear that frost damage is happening. That’s not a good thing for the farmers and I hope it turns out to be minimal.
  2. B: Since frost is caused by direct surface radiation (IR) to space one would think that CO2 increases would inhibit frost by “Back Radiation” – but no such luck apparently…

No need to comment further. Off to Breakfast on the Boat (see previous post).



The Harmonics of Grid Blackouts

The Harmonics of Grid Blackouts

And so it begins. On September 28th 2016, South Australia had a statewide blackout. Synchronous resonances, large AC Grids that have limited tolerances to fast changing step load inputs / falloff will spell disaster to the system re: input sources and sinks as well as the transmission grid itself. Based on what’s happening, it seems apparent that the engineering ‘due diligence’ was not so diligent for whatever reasons; – A question for the local elected political masters to answer in the dark.

South Australia’s Wind Power Disaster Continues (Click Here)

An articulate Engineer, Andrew Dodson was interviewed over two years ago by Scott Medwid and Rick Maltese on the subject of grid stability, and the impact of “green energy”.  It was a Prophetic advanced warning that foreshadowed the South Australia grid collapse of September 28, 2016.

Andrew Dodson’s articulate physical observations (Click Here)

As an aside, if you look down the comments beneath the YouTube piece, you’ll see the usual array of suspects attempting to discredit him.  Lacking the math, physics and understanding resonance implications of the harmonics , the Emotional Alarmists with their feet of clay, (clearly without technical understanding), parrot their negative diatribe anyway. As a Systems and Controls Engineer, suffice to say that the negative comments were made by uninformed trolls beneath the bridge of knowledge. Pretty much like it is today. Social Media 101.

The saving stopgap is that in the end, the physics of all this at scale will unfold badly under the various logic-free plans to win the political apparatus’s apparent objectives. Much like trying to legislate gravity by -2 units so that less people get hurt in wing suit crashes, they press on with their case.

Without thoughtful real world plans that accommodate the physics of the problem, it will be a fools mission heading for the scene of the crash.

Australian harsh Christmas Reality Check: Renewables Can’t Cope – ” it is becoming increasingly obvious that we cannot rely on renewable energy to run our grids..”

Pass the popcorn, please. I’ll be on the boat, off the grid, on the GenSet.


Palm Trees in the Arctic

Palm Trees in the Arctic

Who knew (sarc) that the Arctic ice sheet was so melted in 1845 that it allowed the Franklin expedition, on their tiny antiquated three mast wooden ships, to sail up the Northwest Passage. Why-oh-why wasn’t this previous Climate-Warming-Open-Water-Cycle-In-The-Arctic exposed by the Media of Settled Science, one might muse. Perhaps they were quietly hoping that the evidence would never be located. Note that the Government didn’t find the wreck, a group of private citizen taxpayers did.

The government only spun the story after the fact.

Here’s the feel good news on the deal put out by the Government after the fact tho:   “Parks Canada says the week it spent looking at the wrong part of the ocean will at least provide useful information for navigation.”

HMS ‘Terror’. Indeed. (Click Here )

Meanwhile back in Ottawa, the Canadian Government is running full steam ahead on his Carbon Tax Initiative threat, oblivious to / ignoring all the most obvious of ancient historical facts on Climate such as that just demonstrated by the HMS Terror’s coordinates, convinced that in their determination, it’s all “the science is settled”, and it’s never ever been as bad as it is now.  Ergo, People are the problem, being composed of essential carbon and off gassing that poisonous CO2 with every living breath, using ancillary energy to survive north of the 49th parallel in a very large country.

Yet it is on this very naïve belief that western country Politicians are prepared to sacrifice their economies and their citizens up to those “Foreign” Governments who understand how it really works. India, for example, is now project to grow out of the gate at 8% (of a really big number) per annum going forward. Look at how fast they are ramping up Coal and Coal Fired Projects to cover the need as we speak. China, no slouch at this stuff, is already busily exporting their Engineering capabilities and Project Management skills on Coal and Coal Fired Plants outside their borders bigtime. And so it goes.

Reference:  India on the move

Reference: China on a roll

One More: Coal, Coal and more Coal

Meanwhile, we stagnate, hand wring, inflate and inefficiently spend bags of capital we don’t have on multiple infrastructure green things that get coupled to anti-personnel tax  and grant policies that will make matters and living much worse for everyone. Ask anyone from Ontario these days about Wynn’s Big Capital Green power initiatives and how it’s helping their lives. Anyone!

As a young guy growing up in the Maritimes, the mantra of surviving a bar fight went like this:

“Buddy, don’t watch their lips (flapping), watch their feet”. In socially acceptable circles, it translates (for the Millennials) as “It’s not what they say, it’s what they do”.

So here’s my advice. Remember who is doing all this to you as it unfolds, and next time, get off your butt, ignore the flapping lips and Vote with your feet. That’s where the real power resides.


Arctic Ice Worm Turns Early

Arctic Ice Worm turns Early (and maybe the Media)

The Bullets as presented in Principia-Scientific by Paul Homewood:

The Extent of the Arctic Is actually up to 4 Wadhams +*, whereas the “Settled Science” folks had it projected to be  reduced to 1 Wadham* already.

*(In the true spirit of The Far Side, you’ll have to research the Wadham your own. Suffice to say, some folks have a wonderful sense of  humor).   Hint Here


Merchants of Fear

Merchants of Fear

The Climate change discussion came my way uninvited, as one of those innocuous branches in the road of life that you happen upon accidentally. For sure, it’s been around for a long time, but not something that bothered me  in the context of 4.5 Billion years of things that went bump in the night to get us to the breathable oxygen – CO2 – sunlight photosynthesis  Merry-Go-Round  for the 7+ billion bags of protein who cycle thru the system at the moment.

What piqued my interest was a social gathering that I attended where there was a cluster of well-meaning folk handwringing that we were heading for a cliff because of Human contribution to the 0.04% CO2 part of the multiple non linear cycles at play; – that their kids were likely doomed and so on. There was a genuine fear in their eyes, they were sincere in every way, and were convinced of the “Science” that they were ascribed towards. It had pretty much taken over their previously happy lives and circumstances. Very sad to watch.

I listened, and over the next few months of thinking and doing some basic calculations on the matter, realized that the foundation of their fear was not firmly based in actual fact. Sure, it was getting warmer, but this was not the first rodeo for the planet’s cycles, nor was it the warmest or the worst.  The alarmist conversations and models were coded and biased in such a way that inferred it “could”, “may”, “might”, possibly” be the human contribution as the smoking gun.

Some were 100% convinced that “it would” be the dire future outcome. The vague data, experiments and models they pointed to were simple, suspect and not in agreement with the verifiable past.

Not one of the regular folk in that social worry circle of doom and gloom was knowledgeable around the real physics, thermodynamics, entropy, enthalpy, calculus, derivatives, flux, feedbacks and so on at play.  To me, it was akin to them  piling on to a populist conclusion of an experiment that if a dog has four broken legs and you tell it to jump, (and it doesn’t), it can’t hear.  The climate boondoggle seemed to be a similar phenomenon; –  an example of Cause and Effect being misdirected for some nefarious reason.  (Note: No Dogs were harmed in the above paragraph.)

So I got to thinking some more. How much of this is crowd sourced Fear feeding  forward?  And is it really any different than any other world class fear mongering that is carried on the winds of social media by any of the many Merchants of Fear that pop up regularly in the nightly news?

Why do such hollow pronouncements get so much traction, one might ask. In a word: Directed Fear.

Fear is how you get a few to stampede a huge herd, and lever a small input pronouncement bigtime. It’s very cost effective whether in terms of effort, money or accelerated social influence. Fear is never tied to now; it’s always coded into some future postulation wrapped in some defendable statistical probability.

Fear is the single emotion about the future that will make us ‘Do Political Stupid’ on a global scale in the Present. It comes from the Seat of Human Desire for future stability and certainty. Of course, such doesn’t ever exist and never has been anything but a virtual utopian smoke and mirror game backed by Political Promises on every Campaign Trail. Think of the great wars if you need some examples.

And we ‘all’ (is that too sarcastic?) know that Politicians don’t do, don’t care or don’t understand physical Science, Logic, Math or the material universe. If they did, they wouldn’t have to do Politics except for the ego or money addiction part.

Politics of all stripes are well matched to the current media circus and are collectively able to manage the Levers of Fear very well. Fortunately for greasing their Pairing Skids, Media ‘Don’t Do Math’ well either.  That way, they can both look directly into the voter’s eyes with the conviction that only the innocence of ignorance can pull off.

But lately, it’s beginning to look like voters across the globe, across many oceans might not be buying what they’re peddling to (maybe, perhaps, might, could or not) save the earth a century from now from “a sure thing” definitely caused by human activity and populations.

Even though they have told us at least a thousand times that the Science is settled, we might not be listening any more.

Politics to Media:.. Didn’t they hear the latest trending cry of “WOLF!!” …?  Why aren’t they running?

boomer-christmas-2013Me and you and a Dog named Blue, the “Wolf” of Australia.

The Climate Feeds Back

Climate Feedback

It’s amusing to watch the tiny minded arrogance at play in the various Climate Change discussions. Well, they’re not really discussions, mostly yelling loud enough to proclaim the fix is settled. As a friend used to say on how to find the Best of the Best Pizza in Foodie Town: “Ten Million Flies can’t be wrong”. And so it goes.

If you try to find real physics, real data, real cause and effect empirically confirmed for the diatribe, you will drive your logical self nuts.  Don’t bother.

Stick with what most should be able to agree upon:

Feedback Rules

  • The world we enjoy today is very different from the atmosphere that formed with the Earth billions of years ago. Regardless, the Earth’s early atmosphere somehow transformed and converged into the life giving solution we enjoy today. The original show must have been pretty much a place of active volcanos spewing off gasses like steam water vapor, carbon dioxide and ammonia. The most important feature of the ancient environment (if you were an anaerobic organism) was the absence of free oxygen.
  • Early aquatic blue-green algae evolved and began using energy from the Sun to split molecules of H2O and CO2 and recombine them into organic compounds and molecular oxygen in the unique process known as photosynthesis. Some of the created oxygen combined with organic carbon to recreate CO2 molecules. The remaining oxygen accumulated in the atmosphere, touching off a massive ecological disaster with respect to early existing anaerobic organisms. As oxygen in the atmosphere increased, CO2 decreased.
  • So the circle of life with its various complex feedback loops, involves a cast of plants and some bacteria to use carbon dioxide to give off oxygen, while the animals (count us in here) use oxygen to give off carbon-dioxide. How absolutely elegant! The atmosphere upon which life depends was created and is sustained by life itself in this self-correcting, self-referencing dance. More CO2 gives rise to more plants, more plants support more animals, and so it goes. There never has been a runaway one way feed forward march to destruction for 4 billion years. In that time span, it’s difficult if not impossible to adopt any position other than we got to here because of a fundamental tendency for overall feedback stabilization of the atmosphere.
  • Through many earth shattering disruptions over billions of years along the way to today, the atmosphere has always settled back on its own to stabilize as a workable range / mix of gases and oxygen for animals (including us), plants, and various other life forms to evolve in their relevant window of time. All of this converging stabilizing feedback happens because of complex nonlinear systems that are still well beyond our simple minds and models to fully comprehend.  Yet here we are, having humanly existed for a mere Nano Second along the full timescale, thinking we are in charge. We have enough ignorant arrogance to declare straight faced that we do know it all, and we declare with pomp and ceremony that the “science is settled”, now give us your money.

Picking Fly Shit out of Pepper

  • If you can manage to leave your Ego at the door, you will everywhere see the absurdity of the Climate Change squabbles in the myriad of tweets and posts that go around. The supporting infill arguments / threads are based on such made up detailed trivia, manufactured on such a narrow scale in time that it is akin to using Schrodinger’s wave function to figure out how long it will take to bake a wedding cake in the new oven. Contextually, it’s the wrong tool and will only attract those who agree with the baseline appropriateness for the sake of either argument, thereby subverting the real discussion to the void of endless possibilities and probabilities. The cat may be dead. Or maybe not. Or maybe both. Whatever reality you choose to collapse by looking.

Summary: The practical time scale of understanding global Climate Mechanics is not analogous to anything like Quantum Mechanics. (sarc)

  • The vast unwashed who play the 10 million flies that don’t care to (or can’t) understand the importance of relevant earth climate scale timelines, entropy, enthalpy, thermodynamics, inertia, physics and the like, are programmed only to buzz around the leftover pizza of the day. They can be wrong, even if they are your media of choice. And in this new social reality, the internet won’t forget a single one on the wrong side of history who pushed them there. Give it “time”.

Pass the popcorn, please.  No.. not the pepper.  It’s full of Fly droppings.


The Integrity of Official Climate Records

Evaluating the Integrity of Official Climate Records – Tony Heller

The recent post here about the Emperor’s New Clothes was a simple attempt to put the Current Climate Conversation into the modern human social context.

For anyone searching the ragged edges of the Climate Discussion whose motives are to simply understand, it becomes apparent that there is also a darker underbelly of fact manipulation that doesn’t quite square with history, science or reality. A while back I posted this on Politics disguised as science.

The presentation by Tony Heller struck an honest broker chord with me. You really should sit thru the video to the end and draw your own conclusions.  He outlines my “The Emperor has no Clothes” Short Rant far more elegantly than I did a few weeks ago. That’s why it’s linked here:

Evaluating the Integrity of Official Climate Records


Honest Real Environmentalists with Integrity: The Old Homestead c/w Dad and Mom – Pre Internet, small footprint, great Salmon Fishing on the Restigouche River, Fly Rods only. Ask any New Yorker who went there for the summers who I had the privilege of Guiding for $2.00 per day.


Past Abrupt Climate Changes

Ocean Circulation Implicated In Past Abrupt Climate Changes

After a lifetime of interesting real world designing of things related to Gases (Ideal and otherwise), Fluids, Energy Transfer, Thermodynamics, Entropy and enthalpy for mechanical work in open / closed systems and the like, I fell into the Climate change discussion uninvited.

I was finding it curiously difficult to understand how the incidental delta CO2 could be considered the primary villain for Climate Warming.  Among the numerous and humongous influences that could move the Temperature needle much further (either way) by a mere 0.001% delta shift, it seemed that the bit player C02 had to be a long way down the list.

Working in the world of complex dynamic systems and controls sharpens your first and second order instincts with respect to dynamic system design and behavior, oscillations, damping, phase shifting, feedback, stability and what happens with random runaway feedforward accidents where it all hits a vertical wall. And they all can – at least for finite real world scenarios.

For Climate change (both ways), the 800 pound Gorilla in the room has to be hidden in the size 13 graph footprints feeding forward / back with distinctive spikes. The Graph below has been discussed in this earlier post:


It really doesn’t take a Doctorate with the promise of Tenure and a quota of published papers to see the patterns.  To make the case that it’s not CO2 primarily feeding the temperature forward in the rise or fall, you can see that CO2 actually lags temperature, and never sees the Gorilla peak Stomper coming. CO2 is just another victim on the roller coaster ride. Given the Fractal Nature of Climate, it also scales in both directions for longer and shorter cycles – you have your big ice age events, brief warming,  mini ice age events on other scales and so on.

I was about to give up on things related to the balanced Climate Rant, when I came across this on Principia Scientific International’s site  by The Earth Institute at Columbia University:

Ocean Circulation Implicated

This workpiece of scientific cooperation across disciplines looks and feels like real science that could actually fit the mother of eternal Climate Fractals up and down the earthling’s grasp of time lines.

Good work so far, Columbia University.  Hope I live long enough to see where it takes you.


Climate Change -The Emperor’s New Clothes

Climate Change  – The Emperor’s New Clothes

Being half Danish , let me recall for you a short childhood tale by Hans Christian Andersen from 1837 about the weavers who promise the Emperor a new suit of clothes that would be invisible to those who are unfit for their positions, stupid, or incompetent. To those who don’t get the Danish drift, the Exec Summary goes like the old saw:

“You can fool All of the people some of the time, Some of the people all of the time, but Not all of the people all of the time.”

Everyone who walks this planet knows the Climate is ever changing on many levels. The spin to suppress and tag anyone who might not agree on the relevant influence of CO2 as a climate denier won’t prevail over the longer term as Climate Change cuts both ways.

Among the Mega and Minor Climate influences that move the massive Temperature needle  (either way) under miniscule changes, it seems that a marginal bit player like C02 has to be a long way down the list.

The question is – Who’s zooming who? How can anyone actually know the average temperature of the active thermodynamic globe at any moment in time? Yet it’s all packaged and clothed as certainty, that the mechanisms are well understood, and it’s about CO2; therefore the Science is settled.

The Weaver’s Tale

One day a couple of swindlers came to the Emperor’s capital city – boasting that they were the finest weavers of cloth imaginable. The kicker was that clothes made of their material possessed a wonderful quality of being invisible to anyone who was unfit for their office or unpardonably stupid.

The Emperor gave larges sum of money to the swindlers out of the Treasury, (in advance), so that they could set to work without any down time. They set up a couple of looms, and pretended to be very hard at work. They then asked for the finest silk and the most precious gold-cloth and worked at the empty looms till late at night. Very Impressive.

By this time, through a massive public service campaign, everybody was talking about the precious Carbon Cloth. As a savvy politician, the Emperor set up a Photo-Op to see it himself, while it was still on the loom. With a number of courtiers in tow, he went to see the clever swindlers, hard at work.

What the hell is this? thought the Emperor in his private inside voice, I don’t see bugger all. Am I stupid? That revelation would indeed be a Breaking Bad type news story if CNN or FOX find out.

The Teachable Moment

The rest, as they say (well, me anyway), is history. The masses get indoctrinated to the trending Emperor’s New CO2 Clothes, and the big celebratory parade is scheduled to take place in Paris.

When the Emperor parades before his subjects in his new clothes, everyone in the streets said, “Oh, Wow.. The Emperor’s new Carbon clothes! They’ll fit the Legislative CO2 Bill perfectly going forward!

The social masses dared not tweet that they didn’t see any suit of clothes until an enlightened child shouts out, “But he isn’t wearing anything at all!” The subsequent hashtag trends quickly.  “But he hasn’t got anything on!”…  the whole twitter-verse goes gaga and re-tweets the revelation across the entire universe in minutes.

At some point, the Emperor  suspects they were possibly right. But then he thought, “The show has got to go on. We need the sunk cost Tax Revenue to cover off the massive Weaver’s debt.” So he walked more determined than ever, as his noblemen held high the train that wasn’t there at all. It never left the station.

A Short Rant

At this point I was going to expand and profoundly compare the fundamental gaps and spin problems with the Climate Change political science chaos/mess, the deterministic and purpose CO2 directed modelling used for the ‘might-could-possibly happen’ prediction game, the Chicken Little fear mongering and hate welling up like Methane from the Tundra, the publically funded supporting money flows and the sketchy and selective data manipulation aimed at effectively cultivating and re-directing the minds of the masses.

But in going back thru the parable to set up the bullets, I don’t think I need to.  It occurs to me that the readers who typically come here aren’t at all stupid.

There is no Mega Infrastructure End to End Reset Plan to get us to Zero Carbon  over the next decades on any political table, other than to grab the money. Why, you ask? Because if they actually tried to draw it up, it would be full of holes.

Quite simply, The Emperor has no clothes.

In Danish, we sometimes say stuff like this:

  • jo mere tingene ændrer sig, jo mere er det samme


“The Science is Settled” – A look back 400 years

“The Science is Settled” – A look back 400 years.

It was February 1616 that it was officially decreed as such. In objective hindsight, let’s take a look and celebrate how well that worked out on this 400th  year anniversary.

Basically, the tenants of the 1616 argument centered on the known “settled” science of the day that the earth was fixed, and the rest moved around it.

Then this guy Galileo Galilei showed up at the party and created quite a controversy as a skeptic supporting the opinion that the sun stands still at the center of the world and the earth moves.

The (shall we say) establishment AG’s of the world set off to shut him up for disturbing the popular fixed  view, and organized an Inquisition under the urging  of Pope Paul V to make sure.  Galileo was ordered by law  to “… to abandon the opinion that the sun stands still at the center of the world and the earth moves, and henceforth not to hold, teach, or defend it in any way whatever, either orally or in writing.”

The sentence of the Inquisition was delivered on 22 June. It was in three essential parts:

  • Galileo was found “vehemently suspect of heresy”, namely of having held the opinions that the Sun lies motionless at the center of the universe, that the Earth is not at its center and moves, and that one may hold and defend an opinion as probable after it has been declared contrary to Holy Scripture. He was required to “abjure, curse and detest” those opinions. (Great Lawyer Speak.. and that 400 years ago to boot!)
  • He was sentenced to formal imprisonment at the pleasure of the Inquisition.  On the following day this was commuted to house arrest, which he remained under for the rest of his life.
  • His offending Dialogue was banned; and in an action not announced at the trial, publication of any of his works was forbidden, including any he might write in the future.

“Finally!”, they must have thought, the matter of skeptics has been put to rest.  In modern 21st Century terms we say, “The Science is settled”….

Post Script:

Ah, the arrogance of the tiny human ego knows no bounds. We’ve been on this earth for a Nano Second of its 4.5 Billion year evolution.

As a perfectly elegant feedback system, Earth has managed to self-correct its various mega-disasters to get it to a point where humans can do their walkabouts.

Sadly, in our brief Nano Second, we actually believe we know better, how Earth got to here and what needs fixing. We superficially skip the tops of the waves in oceans that are (for humans) infinitely deep and still make Pollyanna Pronouncements on the whole as if it urgently matters in the grand scheme of things.

The Laws of unintended consequences never enter into the analysis, and we ping pong our disconnected logic from pillar to post, layering more trivial fixes on things that didn’t need fixing from the outset.

So in looking back, how did that last cycle of “The Science is Settled” work out? I like the French wording best:

  • plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose

we are the hollow men…. headpiece filled with straw  (TS Eliot)



Patrick Moore: Should We Celebrate … ?

Although I’ve never personally met Patrick Moore, we do share a common humble beginning, being born in tiny villages in Rural Canada.

I also started out in a one room “school” which was actually a converted confectionary store, and quickly developed a keen interest in all things taught in that little room, including science, math, language, logic  and how elegantly complex things are seamlessly connected in the flow of life.

From the beginning, my familiar world was the Restigouche River surrounded by forests that provided the ideal environment for developing a finely honed set of skills to directly know nature,  fish salmon and hunt to help supplement the food for our extended family’s meagre means while we grew up.

So I confess to having some bias toward Patrick’s eloquence, and although we have never crossed paths, he is a fellow traveler on the journey.

Here is a link to his talk at the Annual GWPF Lecture in London in October 2015.

Link to Patrick Moore: Should We Celebrate CO2?


whoKnewMe, circa 1952.. What would I tell the little guy about the journey he was about to embark upon… (hint: there are no words that would work)

Academics + Politics disguised as Science

When Academics under the Umbrella of Politics disguise as Science for Climate.

This link is just so sad.   Any future fact based   “what were they thinking “ documentary on the politically motivated short selling by small minds with even smaller minds cheering them on will seem so obviously flawed  in the downstream big picture of historical hindsight.

Really, grow up children.  Peer Review the Calculus and Physics of the issues. Resorting to silly little protein side-agendas in an attempt to clutter and subtract from the real truth simply amplifies the real weakness in your arguments.

Link to Watts Up With That?


Significant Long-term Shift in Temperatures ?

Vencore Weather (a provider of information solutions, engineering and analytics for government and commercial customers worldwide) – just posted this article on 28 April:

“Atlantic Ocean showing signs of a significant long-term shift in temperatures from warm-to-cold. “


In addition to solar cycles, temperature cycles in the planet’s oceans play critical roles in our ever changing climate and also on the extent of global sea ice. Oceanic temperature cycles are often quite long-lasting and a warm or cold phase can persist for two or three decades at a time. In general, the Atlantic Ocean experienced a cold phase from the early 1960’s to the mid 1990’s at which time it flipped to a warm phase and that has continued for the most part ever since. The current warm phase; however, is now showing signs of a possible long-term shift back to colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SST) and this could have serious implications on US climate and sea ice areal extent in the Northern Hemisphere.

Here is the link to the Article:  long-term shift in temperatures


Three Year Super La Niña on the way?

I found this  recent 17th April 2016 ‘Climate news from Germany in English’ article posted on re: the coming La Nina to be worth a review. The relevant discussion points:
• From earlier ENSO models, the La Niña originally was not very evident, but the NOAA has since drastically corrected its projections and the CFSv2 is now anticipating “unusual cold sea surface temperatures in the El Niño region of 3.4,”
• Based on an array of data, Schneefan tells readers to expect a La Niña already early in the second half of this year and that there are signs it may turn into a Super La Nina – one that could persist until part way into 2018.
• The consequence, he writes: “With a delay of 4 to 5 months, global temperatures will retreat over many years and fall below the long-term climate mean.”
Here’s the link to that translated article from German on NoTricksZone by Pierre Gosselin.


The Trouble with Climate Models

In attempting to arrive at an enlightened understanding of Climate Change DNA, I have come to the sad realization that the loudest Climate Pop-Science as embraced is far more political and social in its approach than empirical.

For that reason, this article (link) below resonated with an appropriate chord near middle C that reverberated down that winding rabbit hole to where the Mad Hatters must live.  

Dr. Tom Hartsfield holds a PhD in physics from the University of Texas at Austin.

Here is the link to his article:

Climate Models Botch Another Prediction


Climate Change: The Burden of Proof – Dr. S. Fred Singer

This well written article by Dr. S. Fred Singer caught my attention, and I thought it worthy of including in the ongoing Climate Discussion Section here on Not on My Watch.

In particular, the section below stands out:

Surviving a coming climate cooling

I am much more concerned by a cooling climate — as predicted by many climate scientists — with its adverse effects on ecology and severe consequences for humanity.

Singer and Avery in “Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years” have described one form of observed cyclical climate change.  It was first seen during the past glaciation.  Loehle and Singer claim evidence for  these cycles to extend into the present.

In particular, historical records identify the recent cycle of a (beneficial) Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the (destructive) Little Ice Age (LIA) with its failed harvests, starvation, disease, and mass deaths.  Many solar experts predict another LIA cooling within decades. 

Click here for the Burden of Proof Article


Dr. S. Fred Singer is professor emeritus at the University of Virginia and a founding director of the Science & Environmental Policy Project; in 2014, after 25 years, he stepped down as president of SEPP.  His specialty is atmospheric and space physics.   An expert in remote sensing and satellites, he served as the founding director of the US Weather Satellite Service and, more recently, as vice chair of the US National Advisory Committee on Oceans & Atmosphere.  He is an elected Fellow of several scientific societies and a Senior Fellow of the Heartland Institute and the Independent Institute.  He co-authored the NY Times best-seller Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1500 years.

Climate in Northern Europe – Past 2000 Years

Trend calculated precisely for the first time (2012)

An international team including scientists from Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz (JGU)  in 2012 published a reconstruction of the climate in northern Europe over the last 2,000 years based on the information provided by tree-rings.

Professor Dr. Jan Esper’s group at the Institute of Geography at JGU used tree-ring density measurements from sub-fossil pine trees originating from Finnish Lapland to produce a reconstruction reaching back to 138 BC. In so doing, the researchers were able for the first time to precisely demonstrate that the long-term trend over the past two millennia has been towards climatic cooling.  The researchers were from Germany, Finland, Scotland, and Switzerland.

Here is a link to their article, and the high-resolution representation of the Temperature trends attached to it.

The Contact listed is Professor Dr. Jan Esper, Institute of Geography, Johannes Gutenberg University D 55099 Mainz, Germany.

Link to the Article


The Next Three Decades



Since digging into this Climate Change discussion, and attempting to see various sides of the arguments and postulations, the recurring point is that there are a number of divergent datasets and ideas to be vetted and cross checked.

Sometimes it seems that a narrow information vertical is cited in order to demonstrate a particular Climate point hypothesis that may or may not be based on actual collected raw data. Further, data collected may be localized, filtered, dumbed down, narrowed or extrapolated via various computer models until it reinforces or curve fits a particular hypothesis in order to support some predetermined conclusion.

However, there is also some aggregating out there which seems to strike an appropriate balance in the quest for answers. The following article from Global Research represents such an alternative view and analysis of global climate change, which challenges the dominant Global Warming Consensus.

I don’t personally know Global Research or this gentleman, but thought his article was worth a read, with the attached caveat:

Evidence for Predicting Global Cooling for the Next Three Decades– Don Easterbrook

Global Research does not necessarily endorse the proposition of “Global Cooling”, nor does it accept at face value the Consensus on Global Warming. Our purpose is to encourage a more balanced debate on the topic of global climate change.

Don J. Easterbrook is Professor Emeritus of Geology at Western Washington University. Bellingham, WA. He has published extensively on issues pertaining to global climate change.

( Click here for the Article by Don Easterbrook )


The North American Electrical Power Storyboard

Little David and Big Al – who’s doing what in North America

On the basis of land area, Canada and the US are pretty much 50-50 size wise, so global comparison on an Earth land mass basis seems like a good place to start. On the world stage, let’s look at who is doing better in terms of minimizing the percentage of Thermal Carbon based power for the same footprint at this juncture in the 21st Century.

As a starting point, using data published by Statistics Canada (2010), DOE/EIA-0035(2015-03), the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory and Department of Energy, here’s how it rolls up:


The first thing that hits you is that Canada, in spite of having an Earth stewardship footprint that equals the USA, gets along with only 5% as much Electrical Energy production, in spite of the fact that it is on the cold North Face of the 49th Parallel. Having mostly CO2 swallowing wilderness, forest cover, cultivated land, and one tenth the population of the US spread out along the 49th parallel for warmth also helps.  Below are the pie charts expressing the above energy production by type as percent for each country.



Big Al’s elephant in the room at home in the USA is the towering CO2 thermal production numbers @ 67% of the Big Total that have been immune to efforts re: emission reduction. For little David Canada, he’s fortunate that between Hydro and Nuclear, 76% of Canada’s total electrical production are  already (CO2) emission free. That leaves only 23% as CO2 thermal power emission float to be considered for tailoring. I use CO2 as the common yardstick only because both David and Al seem to agree on that as their major objective. Al has 3 times as much work to do to catch up to David on the CO2 front, footprint wise.

Take Away … (Canada Biased – friends from the US can do their own summary for their turf)

This is a high level look at North America Electrical Power generation in the context of CO2 emissions, and the reality of the Canadian flea on the US Elephant’s back. This article makes no determination on the merits of the CO2 Emission arguments. There is also much more to the story than these high level numbers show. For example, Solar PV above the 49th parallel delivers only low annual energy density and is not really viable as a solution in Canada, so the US has the advantage there. ( Drill down here )

Raw local wind has a similar annual energy density problem unless it gets aggregated by geological considerations (making it very site specific).  Places like PEI already take full advantage of their location to make the best use of wind in Canada at virtually 100% wind renewable, helped by their tiny population, footprint and geography.   It won’t work like that everywhere.

However, in spite of our northern latitude, parts of Canada are able to make excellent use of aggregated solar through nature’s weather cycles and the Canadian (vertical potential) geography via renewable Hydro Generation. Clearly, Canada has already done well in that department, and the graphs show it, thanks to those past political leaders who had the vision and character to follow through. BC is nearly 90% renewable Hydro, Yukon is 94% ,Quebec does 97% and Manitoba is nearly 100%.

Many smaller locations in the High Arctic and rural Canada have no choice but to use CO2 thermal. Applying a carbon tax to any Canadian citizen without first providing an economically survivable alternative infrastructure would be borderline heartless and not thoughtful governance. It would be very un-Canadian. There is definitely not a one size Federal approach that fits all. Not even close.

In Closing …

Finally,  where social politics intersect thoughtful Science, don’t take what anyone says regarding Climate Change (including this) as an axiom without personally cross checking the premises via your own logical and math / fact checking skills. Otherwise, you might unwittingly become a vector amplifying some Gullible Travels mantra, for some nefarious agenda that may not quite be true.

Climate Sanity

This is a link to a blog by  Tom Moriarty that works for me.

Climate Sanity by Tom Moriarty

In particular,  his summary on  Solar PV and Wind from a Practical Project point of view underlines the fact that raw solar and wind are low density forms of energy:

Some points to consider

What would be the consequences of covering 6 million square kilometers of land with PV?  This would be like completely covering an area the combined size of Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Wyoming, Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Missouri, Oklahoma, Washington, Georgia, Michigan, Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, Florida, Arkansas, Alabama, North Carolina, New York, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Tennessee, Ohio, Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Maine, South Carolina, West Virginia, Maryland, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New Jersey, Hawaii, Connecticut, Puerto Rico, Delaware, Rhode Island with solar panels.  Of course, this would be spread out over the about 100 million square kilometers of land at latitudes lower than about 50 degrees.

This plan would also require a distribution system that could move energy from daytime areas to nighttime areas, or at least a few days of storage for every person on the planet.  Such a distribution system is not feasible at this time, and the massive amount of storage is prohibitively expensive.

Two days of storage would be 200 kilowatt hours of stored energy per person.  Probably the best mass storage option today (2015) is with Tesla’s Powerwall, which stores 7 kilowatt hours, costs $3,000, and weights 220 pounds.  So we would need about $90,000 and about 6,600 pounds of storage for each of the 7 billion people.  That adds another $630 trillion to the cost.

These calculations serve simply to give a feel for what could be done with solar photovoltaics and what the limitations might be.  I am not suggesting that the world should be powered solely with PV.  With other energy sources in the mix less money and land would need to be devoted to PV (but more to those other sources).  For example, if you did the same calculations for wind, then you would find that about twice as much area  (about 12 million square kilometers) would have to be covered by wind farms to get the same amount of energy.  But at least you can grow corn are graze cattle below the turbines in a wind farm.

I have led you to water.  It is up to you to drink up your own conclusions about the viability of using solar energy to bring the world up to a reasonable level of energy consumption.




How an Ice Age Begins

This Article by Gregory Fegel is worth a read. It does look at one of the questions pondered in the Climate Change Discussion about how the derivative of temperature over time always  inflects from positive (interglacial sequence) through 0 to negative (glacial sequence) in such a dramatic fashion .

How an Ice Age Begins – Courtesy of Gregory Fegel

From his article, this counter intuitive paragraph stands out:

“The next Ice Age will be precipitated by  quite literally  an upward trend in summer temperatures and summer warming of the oceans in the Northern Hemisphere, which will increase oceanic evaporation and cause an increase in precipitation, some of which will fall as snow that will feed the growth of glaciers at high elevations and at high latitudes.”

Regular Folks Climate Change Discussion


There is a lot of material available to the unwashed with time on their hands (like me) on this subject. Spending half a year online, looking at, integrating the vast amounts of information immediately at one’s disposal is the equivalent of multiple years of researching a problem back in the day. Simply amazing, and efficient.

The caveat to making best use of this vast information store is that it still requires a modicum of street smarts, a pause to ask “Is this reasonable?” and to use individual intellect to try and sort fact from fiction. The internet of people and things seems to have no shortage of ego, which is not really  surprising.  It’s hard to navigate a planet steeped in physical separation without it. Just don’t let it drive the vessel.  Otherwise, truth as Truth may get bent to conform to some subtle idea posing as reality.

The Climate Change discussion seems to be one of those issues.

The Big Picture

Make no mistake, it is a big picture compared to the tiny human scale of understanding as relatable to big time. For the purpose of this discussion, let’s use the graphs sourced from EPA’s Climate Change Indicators (2014) and Petit et al. (2001). They are based on the Vostok ice core from Antarctica.

I’ve taken the overlay and scaled it in a CAD program to add the markup to make the job simpler.


Source: EPA’s Climate Change Indicators (2014) and Petit et al. (2001)
They are based on the Vostok ice core from Antarctica.

The graphs cover a period of 425,000 Years to the present.
Right Click and “save as” for full size graphs.


• In spite of all the possible external earth disturbing climate events of the last 400,000 years, there is a recognizable, stable repeating period temperature pattern between the glacial and interglacial peaks, not unlike tides, seasons and other earth cycles. That’s pretty resilient in itself, especially if you figure in wild disruptions such as things like the Mount Toba Volcano (apparently spewed out 2,800 cubic kilometers of magma / ash etc approximately 75,000 years ago).

• There is quite a bit online that attempts to connect the pattern period to changes in Earth’s orbital mechanics, called Milankovitch cycles. There are also detractors.

•  A meaningful statistical climate trend sample size needs to be more than a few centuries. Look at the scale width of 2,000 years at the top of the chart, and then look at the temperature noise over the same 2000 years. It would be pretty hard to confidently stake one’s career (political or scientific) based on such a tiny time sampling to proclaim an enduring scientific trend against the powerful backdrop of historical oscillations which are still not well understood either in magnitude or direction.

• The CO2 graph generally follows the temperature trend, but does not lead the temperature. There is considerable discussion online that says the CO2 lags the temperature by approximately 6-800 years, which could mean the temperature is the initial driver and CO2 follows as an ‘also ran’. A possible mechanism to explain the lag assumes the release of huge quantities of sequestered Methane in the earth and sea at the initial temperature rise which over a period of time, gets processed into CO2 and water. Initially, the release of the Methane is a potent GHG like water vapor (much more than CO2), all of which contribute to the rocket temperature rise. By the time the loose Methane in the atmosphere shows up as converted to CO2 and water, it’s mostly over, the damage is already done.

• Once the temperature system starts to feed forward (for whatever reason), it essentially rises so fast that it creates a near vertical step input disruption to the overall system. Note that in the last 5 cycles, the temperature rise occurs in a short 9,000 +/- years. That is a very powerful thermal excursion rate compared to everything else on the chart, implying that once initiated, it will run its course. We are currently around one of those peaks. For the past 425,000 years, each cycle seems to hit a wall around 3 to 5+ F above the current temperature. At that point it abruptly (really abruptly.. like a switch) goes into feedback, putting the brakes on in an equally spectacular fashion. The feedback loop takes over then exponentially levels out and (unfortunately) lasts about 10 times as long as the temperature spike, and includes an extended glacial period. Freezing to death is a measurable possibility.

• Curiously, I can’t find an answer as to why the very fast feed forward mechanism is abruptly reversed every time, nor how those screeching brakes are fully applied, but it is clear that it happens. Further, our current temperature cycle top has not peaked any higher / differently than the previous four cycles, and it looks like it’s simply oscillating in some noise around the current temperature. You’d think that would be a very interesting question to explore, as the current temperature cycle is clearly not in synch with the CO2 pattern when you add in the calculated human contribution.

• On the Graph, the previous peak from around 100,000 BC indicates a point where we had a 15,000 year diversion between Temperature and CO2 (for whatever reason). If you follow the lines to both axes, a -9F delta in Temperature corresponds to a small Delta in CO2 of approximately -8 ppm. Now, look at the 300,000 BC peak. For the same -9F delta in Temperature, there is a corresponding Delta in CO2 of -34 ppm, or over 4 times as much. The point here is that the cause and effect part of the CO2 argument seems much less binding / less important verses temperature in actual practice.

• If the climate change cycle could be regulated going forward – that is, if the earth held the climate in a steady state over the 425,000 years, the mean temperature based on integrating the areas along the current temperature curve would permanently settle out at a chilly -8.7F below the current temperature. This would put our climate permanently in a near ice age. Fortunately, the recurring temperature rise we get every 100,000 +/- years does a perfect job of stirring the climate pot and gives our earthlings a brief respite of warm climate between ice ages. (It works out to 3% of the time at / or a bit above the current temperature, and 97% of the time below the current temperature.) The point on this one is to tell your kids to enjoy the brief tropical earth holiday while it lasts.

• The story that the Graph tells over 425,000 years indicates that there are a myriad of interacting major forces at play in Climate change.  In spite of that, the climate system spends most of its time in negative feedback except for the brief and powerful near vertical temperature spikes that dramatically recur on a regular basis. Regardless, there is a wall of resistance at the top for temperature that it doesn’t ever cross, and a switch around 5F above our current temperature that shuts it down in a dramatic and rapid 180 degree reversal. What are the mechanics of that gatekeeper? Do we know?

On the Smart Scientist side of this discussion:

Someone in the climate loop with the appropriate toolset needs to refine what is really going on at the top. By top, I don’t mean that in the Political Science sense, but in the New York minute where the rapid temperature rise suddenly inverts and heads back down for the next long and drawn out glacial period. Nothing I’ve seen in the cause and effect department (so far) adequately explains why the wall exists, and why the temperature consistently bounces off at 5F +/- from where we are now, even considering the better precision in the near term data than that gathered for 400,000 BC.

Starter questions for the scientists from the regular unwashed:

• Is it at all possible that the greenhouse effect for the rapid temperature rise is accelerated by the vast quantity of stored methane/ hydrocarbons being rapidly released from the oceans and earth’s crust as the temperature rises, feeding forward and simply stopping when the tank is empty, much like a forest fire eventually  runs out of fuel ?  (Reference to recent NASA Arctic Methane Work )

• Why do the glacial periods last so long verses the interglacial periods? Would each ice age period reset the population back  because of the inability of the planet to support / feed more than the 5 Million we had hanging around the end of the last glacial period? Humans, plants and the supporting carbon based protein seem to have thrived and multiplied well at the top of the current interglacial cycle, going from a paltry 5 Million seven thousand years ago to well over 7 Billion  at the top of the cycle today.

• What is the role that the three phases of water play in this cycle end to end? Considering the accommodating temperature window in the process, water exists as a solid, liquid and vapor. At one end, it’s on the earth’s surface as extended glaciers, ice cover and snow reflecting energy back to space.  At the other end it shows up as ever increasing vapor and a powerful greenhouse blanket trapping the solar energy.  As it transitions from solid to liquid and liquid to gas and back again, it stores and releases huge amounts of energy to the system. Water covers over 70% of the planet, making it hard to ignore.

• Since the cycles are so regular, would that mean the net available water and hydrocarbon flux to the system is more or less constant across the chemistry and physical interchanges over numerous cycles, regardless of how they are delivered to the atmosphere?

• Just asking. What else might it be?

And so to wrap up:

For the regular folk reading this, please pass this along. It’s meant to be a work in progress for everyone, and we the regular people are open to be shown where the logic needs improving / adjusting or where it’s wrong. After all, we share the same planet, and share the same big sky objectives.

But be careful out there. There are clearly  Agenda’s in the mix on both sides of Climate Change  designed to be retirement plans for a few and exacerbated and reinforced by lazy reporting and politics in the middle. There is currently a lack of unbiased genuine Scientific  leadership  around willing  to actually deliver a clear, end to end unified climate  theory  that fits the long haul data to the world; – not one motivated by Big Money, Big Ego or Big Politics cherry picking at the edges of the problem for whatever selfish  biased reasons that suit a particular agenda.

Regardless, enjoy the temperature tropics for now. It’s a great time to be human, considering the 97% odds of being born on the downside of a glacial period.

That Reminds me: I’m off to buy a lotto ticket.

Take care

A link to all the Climate Change posts


Recent NASA article on Arctic Methane