The Harmonics of Grid Blackouts

The Harmonics of Grid Blackouts

And so it begins. On September 28th 2016, South Australia had a statewide blackout. Synchronous resonances, large AC Grids that have limited tolerances to fast changing step load inputs / falloff will spell disaster to the system re: input sources and sinks as well as the transmission grid itself. Based on what’s happening, it seems apparent that the engineering ‘due diligence’ was not so diligent for whatever reasons; – A question for the local elected political masters to answer in the dark.

South Australia’s Wind Power Disaster Continues (Click Here)

An articulate Engineer, Andrew Dodson was interviewed over two years ago by Scott Medwid and Rick Maltese on the subject of grid stability, and the impact of “green energy”.  It was a Prophetic advanced warning that foreshadowed the South Australia grid collapse of September 28, 2016.

Andrew Dodson’s articulate physical observations (Click Here)

As an aside, if you look down the comments beneath the YouTube piece, you’ll see the usual array of suspects attempting to discredit him.  Lacking the math, physics and understanding resonance implications of the harmonics , the Emotional Alarmists with their feet of clay, (clearly without technical understanding), parrot their negative diatribe anyway. As a Systems and Controls Engineer, suffice to say that the negative comments were made by uninformed trolls beneath the bridge of knowledge. Pretty much like it is today. Social Media 101.

The saving stopgap is that in the end, the physics of all this at scale will unfold badly under the various logic-free plans to win the political apparatus’s apparent objectives. Much like trying to legislate gravity by -2 units so that less people get hurt in wing suit crashes, they press on with their case.

Without thoughtful real world plans that accommodate the physics of the problem, it will be a fools mission heading for the scene of the crash.

Australian harsh Christmas Reality Check: Renewables Can’t Cope – ” it is becoming increasingly obvious that we cannot rely on renewable energy to run our grids..”

Pass the popcorn, please. I’ll be on the boat, off the grid, on the GenSet.

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Palm Trees in the Arctic

Palm Trees in the Arctic

Who knew (sarc) that the Arctic ice sheet was so melted in 1845 that it allowed the Franklin expedition, on their tiny antiquated three mast wooden ships, to sail up the Northwest Passage. Why-oh-why wasn’t this previous Climate-Warming-Open-Water-Cycle-In-The-Arctic exposed by the Media of Settled Science, one might muse. Perhaps they were quietly hoping that the evidence would never be located. Note that the Government didn’t find the wreck, a group of private citizen taxpayers did.

The government only spun the story after the fact.

Here’s the feel good news on the deal put out by the Government after the fact tho:   “Parks Canada says the week it spent looking at the wrong part of the ocean will at least provide useful information for navigation.”

HMS ‘Terror’. Indeed. (Click Here )

Meanwhile back in Ottawa, the Canadian Government is running full steam ahead on his Carbon Tax Initiative threat, oblivious to / ignoring all the most obvious of ancient historical facts on Climate such as that just demonstrated by the HMS Terror’s coordinates, convinced that in their determination, it’s all “the science is settled”, and it’s never ever been as bad as it is now.  Ergo, People are the problem, being composed of essential carbon and off gassing that poisonous CO2 with every living breath, using ancillary energy to survive north of the 49th parallel in a very large country.

Yet it is on this very naïve belief that western country Politicians are prepared to sacrifice their economies and their citizens up to those “Foreign” Governments who understand how it really works. India, for example, is now project to grow out of the gate at 8% (of a really big number) per annum going forward. Look at how fast they are ramping up Coal and Coal Fired Projects to cover the need as we speak. China, no slouch at this stuff, is already busily exporting their Engineering capabilities and Project Management skills on Coal and Coal Fired Plants outside their borders bigtime. And so it goes.

Reference:  India on the move

Reference: China on a roll

One More: Coal, Coal and more Coal

Meanwhile, we stagnate, hand wring, inflate and inefficiently spend bags of capital we don’t have on multiple infrastructure green things that get coupled to anti-personnel tax  and grant policies that will make matters and living much worse for everyone. Ask anyone from Ontario these days about Wynn’s Big Capital Green power initiatives and how it’s helping their lives. Anyone!

As a young guy growing up in the Maritimes, the mantra of surviving a bar fight went like this:

“Buddy, don’t watch their lips (flapping), watch their feet”. In socially acceptable circles, it translates (for the Millennials) as “It’s not what they say, it’s what they do”.

So here’s my advice. Remember who is doing all this to you as it unfolds, and next time, get off your butt, ignore the flapping lips and Vote with your feet. That’s where the real power resides.

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Loneliness and The Urge to Possess

Loneliness and The Urge to Possess

The urge to possess or to be possessed is a profound human trait that comes from deep within. That source is the center of loneliness. Each of us will try to fill that void in different ways: a belief system, an organized cause or some other form of activity. All such efforts are escapes and the deep loneliness still remains to be filled.

To commit yourself to some organization, to some belief or action is to be possessed by them negatively. The other side of that same coin is to possess. Positive possessiveness is the doing good, changing the world, what is to what should be under the guise of love.

To control or direct another in the name of love or otherwise is really the urge to possess. This binary system of possess/possessed is held together by the urge to find security, safety and comfort from loneliness. Yet it’s from this very attachment that conflict and frustration will arise.

So know this: There is no escape from loneliness. It is simply a fact, and when you try to escape facts you can only leave a trail that breeds confusion and sorrow.

Once you directly see this fact beyond thought and logic, the rest will fade away.

-the old man

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Arctic Ice Worm Turns Early

Arctic Ice Worm turns Early (and maybe the Media)

The Bullets as presented in Principia-Scientific by Paul Homewood:

The Extent of the Arctic Is actually up to 4 Wadhams +*, whereas the “Settled Science” folks had it projected to be  reduced to 1 Wadham* already.

*(In the true spirit of The Far Side, you’ll have to research the Wadham your own. Suffice to say, some folks have a wonderful sense of  humor).   Hint Here

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For the Sake of Doing

For the Sake of Doing

To wander thru life always bent on doing things for the sake of something else is at the core of all dissatisfaction; a perpetual series of escapes and avoidance from your real self and what really is.

Western Society’s Values are based on this purposeful theme; – I do this for you, and you do that or give me something else. The ‘this for that’, ‘tit for tat’ motivational system has been refined and promoted by the concept of money as the universal exchange agent to cut those deals.  Modern Society abstraction is a long way from the shoreline of our hunter/gather days and ways, even though our DNA never left the dock.

Those who loudly practice their Virtuosity in order to gain approval of the respectable component of society are not exempt for their particular variation on the above theme. Really, it’s always the same empty field that’s been ploughed over and over by the many, but never actually sown.

You’d think that compared to our ancestors, we have it made. We live longer; better healthcare and such.  We have tons more free time thanks to technology as well as instant global communications.

In spite of the timeline freedom that modern society affords us, doing something simply for the sake of doing it is harshly judged. The end result of all that backdraft is to perpetuate the eternal emptiness of unending desire for more or different whatever, wherever.

Because of the above processes, we miss the singularity of true beauty beyond thought, feeling and desire. It’s a beauty that has no opposite, and is outside the reach of the busy Yin/Yang of Space-Time apparatus.

If you’re feeling there’s a lot missing in your cluttered up life, just quiet your mind and do something simply for the sake of doing it, without intent or motive for anyone or anything. You might get to directly understand (beyond thought) that’s really why you came here.

–          the old man

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Merchants of Fear

Merchants of Fear

The Climate change discussion came my way uninvited, as one of those innocuous branches in the road of life that you happen upon accidentally. For sure, it’s been around for a long time, but not something that bothered me  in the context of 4.5 Billion years of things that went bump in the night to get us to the breathable oxygen – CO2 – sunlight photosynthesis  Merry-Go-Round  for the 7+ billion bags of protein who cycle thru the system at the moment.

What piqued my interest was a social gathering that I attended where there was a cluster of well-meaning folk handwringing that we were heading for a cliff because of Human contribution to the 0.04% CO2 part of the multiple non linear cycles at play; – that their kids were likely doomed and so on. There was a genuine fear in their eyes, they were sincere in every way, and were convinced of the “Science” that they were ascribed towards. It had pretty much taken over their previously happy lives and circumstances. Very sad to watch.

I listened, and over the next few months of thinking and doing some basic calculations on the matter, realized that the foundation of their fear was not firmly based in actual fact. Sure, it was getting warmer, but this was not the first rodeo for the planet’s cycles, nor was it the warmest or the worst.  The alarmist conversations and models were coded and biased in such a way that inferred it “could”, “may”, “might”, possibly” be the human contribution as the smoking gun.

Some were 100% convinced that “it would” be the dire future outcome. The vague data, experiments and models they pointed to were simple, suspect and not in agreement with the verifiable past.

Not one of the regular folk in that social worry circle of doom and gloom was knowledgeable around the real physics, thermodynamics, entropy, enthalpy, calculus, derivatives, flux, feedbacks and so on at play.  To me, it was akin to them  piling on to a populist conclusion of an experiment that if a dog has four broken legs and you tell it to jump, (and it doesn’t), it can’t hear.  The climate boondoggle seemed to be a similar phenomenon; –  an example of Cause and Effect being misdirected for some nefarious reason.  (Note: No Dogs were harmed in the above paragraph.)

So I got to thinking some more. How much of this is crowd sourced Fear feeding  forward?  And is it really any different than any other world class fear mongering that is carried on the winds of social media by any of the many Merchants of Fear that pop up regularly in the nightly news?

Why do such hollow pronouncements get so much traction, one might ask. In a word: Directed Fear.

Fear is how you get a few to stampede a huge herd, and lever a small input pronouncement bigtime. It’s very cost effective whether in terms of effort, money or accelerated social influence. Fear is never tied to now; it’s always coded into some future postulation wrapped in some defendable statistical probability.

Fear is the single emotion about the future that will make us ‘Do Political Stupid’ on a global scale in the Present. It comes from the Seat of Human Desire for future stability and certainty. Of course, such doesn’t ever exist and never has been anything but a virtual utopian smoke and mirror game backed by Political Promises on every Campaign Trail. Think of the great wars if you need some examples.

And we ‘all’ (is that too sarcastic?) know that Politicians don’t do, don’t care or don’t understand physical Science, Logic, Math or the material universe. If they did, they wouldn’t have to do Politics except for the ego or money addiction part.

Politics of all stripes are well matched to the current media circus and are collectively able to manage the Levers of Fear very well. Fortunately for greasing their Pairing Skids, Media ‘Don’t Do Math’ well either.  That way, they can both look directly into the voter’s eyes with the conviction that only the innocence of ignorance can pull off.

But lately, it’s beginning to look like voters across the globe, across many oceans might not be buying what they’re peddling to (maybe, perhaps, might, could or not) save the earth a century from now from “a sure thing” definitely caused by human activity and populations.

Even though they have told us at least a thousand times that the Science is settled, we might not be listening any more.

Politics to Media:.. Didn’t they hear the latest trending cry of “WOLF!!” …?  Why aren’t they running?

boomer-christmas-2013Me and you and a Dog named Blue, the “Wolf” of Australia.

The Climate Feeds Back

Climate Feedback

It’s amusing to watch the tiny minded arrogance at play in the various Climate Change discussions. Well, they’re not really discussions, mostly yelling loud enough to proclaim the fix is settled. As a friend used to say on how to find the Best of the Best Pizza in Foodie Town: “Ten Million Flies can’t be wrong”. And so it goes.

If you try to find real physics, real data, real cause and effect empirically confirmed for the diatribe, you will drive your logical self nuts.  Don’t bother.

Stick with what most should be able to agree upon:

Feedback Rules

  • The world we enjoy today is very different from the atmosphere that formed with the Earth billions of years ago. Regardless, the Earth’s early atmosphere somehow transformed and converged into the life giving solution we enjoy today. The original show must have been pretty much a place of active volcanos spewing off gasses like steam water vapor, carbon dioxide and ammonia. The most important feature of the ancient environment (if you were an anaerobic organism) was the absence of free oxygen.
  • Early aquatic blue-green algae evolved and began using energy from the Sun to split molecules of H2O and CO2 and recombine them into organic compounds and molecular oxygen in the unique process known as photosynthesis. Some of the created oxygen combined with organic carbon to recreate CO2 molecules. The remaining oxygen accumulated in the atmosphere, touching off a massive ecological disaster with respect to early existing anaerobic organisms. As oxygen in the atmosphere increased, CO2 decreased.
  • So the circle of life with its various complex feedback loops, involves a cast of plants and some bacteria to use carbon dioxide to give off oxygen, while the animals (count us in here) use oxygen to give off carbon-dioxide. How absolutely elegant! The atmosphere upon which life depends was created and is sustained by life itself in this self-correcting, self-referencing dance. More CO2 gives rise to more plants, more plants support more animals, and so it goes. There never has been a runaway one way feed forward march to destruction for 4 billion years. In that time span, it’s difficult if not impossible to adopt any position other than we got to here because of a fundamental tendency for overall feedback stabilization of the atmosphere.
  • Through many earth shattering disruptions over billions of years along the way to today, the atmosphere has always settled back on its own to stabilize as a workable range / mix of gases and oxygen for animals (including us), plants, and various other life forms to evolve in their relevant window of time. All of this converging stabilizing feedback happens because of complex nonlinear systems that are still well beyond our simple minds and models to fully comprehend.  Yet here we are, having humanly existed for a mere Nano Second along the full timescale, thinking we are in charge. We have enough ignorant arrogance to declare straight faced that we do know it all, and we declare with pomp and ceremony that the “science is settled”, now give us your money.

Picking Fly Shit out of Pepper

  • If you can manage to leave your Ego at the door, you will everywhere see the absurdity of the Climate Change squabbles in the myriad of tweets and posts that go around. The supporting infill arguments / threads are based on such made up detailed trivia, manufactured on such a narrow scale in time that it is akin to using Schrodinger’s wave function to figure out how long it will take to bake a wedding cake in the new oven. Contextually, it’s the wrong tool and will only attract those who agree with the baseline appropriateness for the sake of either argument, thereby subverting the real discussion to the void of endless possibilities and probabilities. The cat may be dead. Or maybe not. Or maybe both. Whatever reality you choose to collapse by looking.

Summary: The practical time scale of understanding global Climate Mechanics is not analogous to anything like Quantum Mechanics. (sarc)

  • The vast unwashed who play the 10 million flies that don’t care to (or can’t) understand the importance of relevant earth climate scale timelines, entropy, enthalpy, thermodynamics, inertia, physics and the like, are programmed only to buzz around the leftover pizza of the day. They can be wrong, even if they are your media of choice. And in this new social reality, the internet won’t forget a single one on the wrong side of history who pushed them there. Give it “time”.

Pass the popcorn, please.  No.. not the pepper.  It’s full of Fly droppings.

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