Past Abrupt Climate Changes

Ocean Circulation Implicated In Past Abrupt Climate Changes

After a lifetime of interesting real world designing of things related to Gases (Ideal and otherwise), Fluids, Energy Transfer, Thermodynamics, Entropy and enthalpy for mechanical work in open / closed systems and the like, I fell into the Climate change discussion uninvited.

I was finding it curiously difficult to understand how the incidental delta CO2 could be considered the primary villain for Climate Warming.  Among the numerous and humongous influences that could move the Temperature needle much further (either way) by a mere 0.001% delta shift, it seemed that the bit player C02 had to be a long way down the list.

Working in the world of complex dynamic systems and controls sharpens your first and second order instincts with respect to dynamic system design and behavior, oscillations, damping, phase shifting, feedback, stability and what happens with random runaway feedforward accidents where it all hits a vertical wall. And they all can – at least for finite real world scenarios.

For Climate change (both ways), the 800 pound Gorilla in the room has to be hidden in the size 13 graph footprints feeding forward / back with distinctive spikes. The Graph below has been discussed in this earlier post:

TheEarthInThePast

It really doesn’t take a Doctorate with the promise of Tenure and a quota of published papers to see the patterns.  To make the case that it’s not CO2 primarily feeding the temperature forward in the rise or fall, you can see that CO2 actually lags temperature, and never sees the Gorilla peak Stomper coming. CO2 is just another victim on the roller coaster ride. Given the Fractal Nature of Climate, it also scales in both directions for longer and shorter cycles – you have your big ice age events, brief warming,  mini ice age events on other scales and so on.

I was about to give up on things related to the balanced Climate Rant, when I came across this on Principia Scientific International’s site  by The Earth Institute at Columbia University:

Ocean Circulation Implicated

This workpiece of scientific cooperation across disciplines looks and feels like real science that could actually fit the mother of eternal Climate Fractals up and down the earthling’s grasp of time lines.

Good work so far, Columbia University.  Hope I live long enough to see where it takes you.

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